The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service Feed Outlook for February 2026 showed U.S. corn exports for the 2025/26 marketing year forecast at a record 3.3 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels from previous estimates, reflecting continued strength in global demand. Export shipments through November 2025 were 60% higher than the same period a year earlier, with key markets such as Japan, South Korea, and the European Union showing significant increases. Despite this surge, sales to China remain negligible.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service reveal that accumulated exports and outstanding sales combined are nearly 31% above last year’s pace, with physical shipments nearly 49% higher. This strong export performance is expected to continue, with the peak shipping quarter still ahead.
The increase in corn exports has tightened the U.S. supply outlook, lowering ending stocks by 100 million bushels to 2.127 billion. While reduced, carryout remains the highest since 2018/19, with a stocks-to-use ratio of about 13%, compared to a five-year average of just under 10%. The season-average corn price holds steady at $4.10 per bushel, supported by cash prices at county elevators.
On the international front, global coarse grain trade for 2025/26 is revised upward by 3.06 million metric tons to 244.76 million metric tons. Brazil’s corn exports are raised by 1 million metric tons, and U.S. exports by 2 million metric tons, offsetting a 1 million metric ton cut for Ukraine. Argentina’s barley exports are also boosted due to a record crop, contributing to the trade increase.
Sorghum ethanol use continues to rise, with a 5 million bushel increase in forecasted use, driven by strong ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration. However, sorghum remains a minor ethanol feedstock compared to corn, limited by processing capabilities.
