The U.S. Department of Agriculture trimmed its all-rice export forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year by 2 million hundredweight to 87 million, reflecting weaker demand for long-grain rice amid growing competition from South American exporters and shifting trade policies in key markets.
Long-grain rice exports were cut by 3 million hundredweight to 56 million, offset slightly by a 1 million hundredweight increase in medium- and short-grain exports to 31 million. The reduction affects both rough and milled rice, with Latin American countries—especially Mexico—remaining the largest buyers of U.S. long-grain rough rice. However, competition from Brazil, Peru, and Pakistan, particularly in markets like Haiti, has dampened U.S. sales.
The USDA also lowered the U.S. all-rice supply projection by 1 million hundredweight to 47.7 million, primarily due to slower-than-expected long-grain rice imports, especially from Thailand. Despite the cut, the supply remains near historic highs, second only to last year’s record.
Ending stocks for all rice were raised by 1 million hundredweight to 50.3 million, reflecting reduced utilization driven by the export forecast cut. Total rice utilization is now projected at 258 million hundredweight, down 2 million from prior estimates.
Medium- and short-grain rice exports saw a boost, driven by strong sales to Japan, the largest market for these classes. The USDA highlighted a 75 percent increase in U.S. rice import quotas agreed upon with Japan in 2025, supporting higher export expectations.
Globally, rice production is forecast to reach 541.3 million metric tons in 2025/26, slightly up due to improved yields in Cambodia. Global rice trade is projected at a record 62.8 million tons, with Thailand’s exports expected to decline amid higher domestic prices and a strong baht.
U.S. rice prices are adjusting accordingly, with the season-average farm price for all rice raised 30 cents to $12.10 per hundredweight, driven by higher medium- and short-grain prices in California and other states.
