Argentina is set to harvest its largest wheat crop ever in 2025/26, boosting global wheat production to a record 841.8 million metric tons and intensifying competition for U.S. exporters. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Wheat Outlook showed that Argentina’s output is forecast at 27.8 million metric tons, surpassing its previous record by more than 5 million tons, driven primarily by exceptional yields.
Argentina’s expanded production and exportable supplies are expected to weigh on U.S. wheat shipments, especially during the December to March peak export period. The country is poised to dominate shipments to Brazil and other South American markets while expanding into Southeast Asia and North Africa. However, elevated yields have resulted in lower protein levels, with some wheat likely diverted to feed use rather than milling.
The U.S. wheat outlook remains steady, with production for the 2025/26 marketing year unchanged at 1.985 billion bushels and exports forecast at 900 million bushels. U.S. wheat exports from June through November 2025 rose 23% compared to the previous year, reflecting strong demand despite global competition. Domestic wheat food use was lowered by 5 million bushels due to smaller-than-expected flour milling in the last quarter of 2025.
Global wheat trade is projected to increase slightly to 221.4 million metric tons, supported by record production in Argentina, Canada, and Kazakhstan. Major Asian importers such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam are expected to increase purchases, benefiting from abundant supplies.
Global wheat stocks are forecast at a five-year high of 277.5 million metric tons, although down slightly from last month’s estimate. Stocks held by major exporters remain ample, exerting downward pressure on prices.
The season-average farm price for U.S. wheat is forecast steady at $4.90 per bushel, reflecting a balance between abundant supplies and steady demand.
As global supplies grow, U.S. wheat producers face mounting challenges to maintain market share, underscoring the importance of efficiency and quality in a competitive landscape.
