Drought conditions significantly worsened across the Midwest and High Plains this week due to temperatures 8 to 16 degrees above normal and limited rainfall, with exceptional drought expanding in Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana, though some relief is forecast in the coming days.
- Temperatures averaged 8 to 16 degrees above normal across the Plains and Midwest, with greatest departures in Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri
- Exceptional drought (D4) was introduced in southwestern Missouri following prolonged hot and dry conditions and increasing moisture deficits
- Most of the Midwest received less than 50% of normal precipitation, with widespread areas receiving less than 25% of normal
- Severe and extreme drought expanded across northern and central Wisconsin and western Michigan due to persistent precipitation deficits and depleted soil moisture
- Relief is forecast in the coming days, with 2 to 5 inches of precipitation expected from Texas through Missouri, and above-normal precipitation favored across much of the western and central U.S. in the 6-10 day outlook
Drought conditions worsened across much of the Midwest and High Plains this week as unusually warm temperatures and limited rainfall intensified moisture deficits, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA.
Temperatures averaged 8 to 16 degrees above normal across portions of the Plains and Midwest, with the greatest departures in Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri. The combination of unusual warmth and limited rainfall maintained elevated evaporative demand and contributed to further drying across areas already experiencing drought.
Exceptional drought expands in Missouri
The most significant deterioration occurred in southwestern Missouri, where exceptional drought (D4) was introduced following prolonged hot and dry conditions and increasing short- and mid-term moisture deficits. Drought conditions also intensified across southern Illinois, southern Indiana and portions of Kentucky, where continued rainfall deficits and above-normal temperatures contributed to worsening conditions.
Exceptional drought also expanded across Arkansas and northern Louisiana, where persistent precipitation deficits and depleted soil moisture contributed to the expansion and intensification of drought. These conditions followed record-breaking September warmth, when Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana experienced their warmest September in 132 years of records, while Tennessee and Mississippi recorded their second- and third-warmest Septembers, respectively.
Wisconsin, Michigan see severe drought expand
Drought conditions intensified across northern and central Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where persistent short- and mid-term precipitation deficits, low streamflows and depleted soil moisture supported the expansion of severe drought (D2) and extreme drought (D3). In central Wisconsin, deterioration extended southward, reflecting worsening conditions across much of the northern and central portions of the state.
Most of the Midwest received less than 50% of normal precipitation, with widespread areas receiving less than 25% of normal. Localized rainfall occurred across portions of Iowa, Minnesota and northern Michigan, but amounts were generally insufficient to support drought improvements.
High Plains conditions remain largely unchanged
Drought conditions remained largely unchanged across the High Plains, with localized improvements across portions of North Dakota, Wyoming and Colorado and limited deterioration in Kansas. Temperatures averaged 8 to 16 degrees above normal, with locally greater departures. The unusually warm conditions increased evaporative demand and contributed to continued moisture losses, particularly where precipitation was limited.
Most of the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas received little precipitation during the week, with widespread areas recording less than 25% of normal. In Kansas, localized degradations occurred across the eastern border with Missouri, where continued dryness and above-normal temperatures contributed to worsening short-term conditions.
Despite these changes, significant drought persisted across portions of the western High Plains, particularly in Wyoming and Colorado, where longer-term precipitation deficits and soil moisture shortages continued to limit recovery.
Relief expected in some areas
The Weather Prediction Center’s five-day quantitative precipitation forecast shows a broad area of precipitation extending from the Southwest and southern Plains northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. The heaviest precipitation is forecast from central and eastern Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri, where widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches are indicated, with localized amounts exceeding 5 inches.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western and central U.S., including portions of the West, northern and central Plains, Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest. These areas may see opportunities for drought relief, particularly where recent precipitation has already improved short-term moisture conditions.
