The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest long-term projections outline a steady but evolving landscape for American agriculture through 2035, highlighting shifts in crop acreage, production, trade and farm income amid changing global economic conditions.
The report projects a modest decline in total planted acres for the eight major field crops, from 247.6 million acres in 2026/27 to 241.6 million acres by 2035, driven largely by reduced corn acreage. Corn planted acres are expected to fall from 95 million in 2026/27 to 91 million by 2035/36, while rice is the only major crop forecast to see an increase in planted area during this period.
Despite acreage declines, production is expected to rise for most crops due to yield improvements, with soybean production projected to reach record highs by 2035. Soybean planted area is forecast to peak at 85 million acres in 2026/27 before gradually declining to 83 million acres, supported by competitive prices and domestic demand for crush products.
U.S. agricultural exports are expected to rebound after a dip in 2026, growing at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent to reach $208.3 billion by 2035. However, competition from South American producers and a slowly weakening dollar may temper export growth, especially for grains and oilseeds.
Livestock production is projected to increase steadily, with beef, pork, and broiler production rising by roughly 12 percent over the projection period. Beef cattle inventories are expected to recover from recent lows, supporting a nearly 12 percent increase in beef production by 2035. Milk production is forecast to grow nearly 10 percent, driven by efficiency gains and herd expansion.
Farm income is projected to see modest growth in 2026, with net farm income rising 2.7 percent to $183.3 billion. However, income is expected to decline gradually thereafter, reaching $93 billion by 2035. Government payments, including those under the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs, are anticipated to fluctuate but remain a significant income source.
The report also notes that global economic growth will slow over the next decade, with low-income countries expected to outpace high-income nations, influencing demand for U.S. agricultural products. Population growth is projected to slow worldwide, affecting consumption patterns.
Overall, the USDA’s projections suggest a future of steady production growth, evolving trade dynamics, and ongoing challenges for U.S. agriculture as it adapts to shifting domestic and global conditions.
