The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service projects net farm income, a broad measure of farm profits, to fall by $1.2 billion (0.7%) to $153.4 billion in 2026 compared to 2025, when measured in nominal dollars. Adjusted for inflation, the decline is steeper at 2.6%, or $4.1 billion. Despite this drop, net farm income remains above the 20-year average.
In contrast, net cash farm income, which accounts for cash receipts and expenses but excludes noncash items, is forecast to increase by $4.6 billion (3%) to $158.5 billion in 2026. When adjusted for inflation, this represents a 1.1% rise. This measure also stays above its 2005–24 average.
Farm businesses with annual gross cash farm income of at least $350,000 are expected to see an 18.7% increase in average net cash income to $135,000 per farm in 2026. All nine USDA farm resource regions anticipate income gains, with the Prairie Gateway region projected to experience the largest rise. Crop-specialized farms are forecast to see higher average net cash income, while animal product farms may see declines except for cattle and calf operations.
Farm sector assets are expected to grow by $142.9 billion (3.2%) to $4.54 trillion, driven by rising farm real estate values. Farm debt is also forecast to increase by $30.8 billion (5.2%) to $624.7 billion, pushing the debt-to-asset ratio slightly higher to 13.75%. Working capital is projected to decline by 9.2%.
Median total farm household income is forecast to rise to $113,031 in 2026, up 2.7% after inflation. Off-farm income, which many farm households rely on, is expected to increase modestly to $92,815.
