Farmer sentiment declined in June after two months of gains, driven largely by a sharp drop in future expectations, according to the latest Ag Economy Barometer from Purdue University and CME Group. The index fell 12 points to 146, with the Index of Future Expectations dropping 18 points to 146. The Index of Current Conditions slipped only 2 points, to 144.
“Reduced optimism about the future of U.S. agriculture’s export prospects stands out as a major cause of the shift in sentiment,” said Michael Langemeier, principal investigator for the barometer and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Although farmers remain concerned that U.S. tariff policies will reduce their income, fewer producers in May and June said they expect a negative or very negative impact on their income than they did in March and April.”
The Farm Financial Performance Index also declined, falling 5 points to 104 in June. Although still above 100 — which suggests farmers expect better financial performance in 2025 than in 2024 — the index reflects a slightly dimmer financial outlook among producers.
Helping to support the financial index is strong income prospects in the livestock sector, particularly beef. However, investment plans remain muted. The Farm Capital Investment Index rose 5 points to 60, with 24% of producers now saying it’s a good time to invest. Still, 54% expect to reduce machinery purchases this year, up 6 points from May, suggesting investment optimism may not translate into equipment sales.
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dipped 4 points to 120. While more producers still expect land values to rise than fall, optimism cooled slightly, with 32% expecting values to increase—down from 37% in May.
Shifting views on ag exports were a major factor in sentiment change. Just 41% of producers said they expect agricultural exports to grow over the next five years, down from 52% in May. Those expecting exports to decline rose to 16%, up 4 points. While this outlook is still better than March’s low point, the month-over-month decline signals growing uncertainty in the global trade environment.
Sentiment toward trade policy also remains mixed. Only 31% of farmers strongly agreed in June that free trade benefits agriculture and most U.S. industries, consistent with May’s results but notably lower than the 49% reported in fall 2020. Meanwhile, concerns over the impact of tariffs have eased somewhat. In March and April, 56% of producers said tariffs were negatively affecting farm income; that number dropped to 45% in May and June. Positive perceptions of tariff impact also rose from 23% to 27% in the same period.
Despite June’s dip, all barometer indices remain above year-ago levels, offering a measure of resilience amid a volatile economic and policy landscape. The survey, conducted June 9–13, included responses from 400 U.S. producers.
