Farmer sentiment declined in March as concerns over trade policy and future agricultural exports intensified, according to the latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The barometer index fell 12 points to 140, down from 152 in February. The Index of Future Expectations saw the sharpest decline, dropping 15 points to 144, while the Current Conditions Index decreased by 5 points to 132.
James Mintert, director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture, said, "The falloff in key crop prices since mid-February, combined with growing concerns about agricultural trade and farm policy, were important factors behind the sentiment shift."
Despite the overall decline, farmers remained cautiously optimistic about farmland values. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index held steady at 118, just 6 points lower than a year ago.
The survey revealed a significant shift in farmers' policy concerns. Since the November 2024 election, trade policy has become the dominant issue, with 43% of respondents citing it as the most important policy affecting their farm in the next five years.
Farmers' outlook for U.S. agricultural exports reached an all-time low in the March survey. The percentage of producers expecting exports to fall (30%) nearly matched those expecting an increase.
In response to potential trade disruptions, 65% of farmers believe a program similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program is likely or very likely to be implemented to compensate for lower output prices.
The Farm Capital Investment Index also declined, dropping 5 points to 54. However, this remains the second-highest reading since June 2021, indicating continued willingness to make large investments in farming operations.
The March Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from March 10-14, 2025, collecting responses from 400 producers across the United States.
