Canada's 2026 wheat production is expected to fall 9.6% to 36.1 million metric tons according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, driven by lower harvested area and reduced yields from wet spring planting and intense July heat. Quality concerns pose a greater challenge than the production decline, with only 79% of spring wheat samples meeting top grades compared to 91% the previous year, likely limiting export growth despite the second-largest harvest on record.
- Canada's 2026 wheat production forecast at 36.1 million metric tons, down 9.6% from 2025-26
- Only 79% of spring wheat samples graded No. 2 or better, down from 91% year-over-year due to harvest rain damage
- Feed-grade wheat reached 20% of samples, the largest share since 2019, pushing more grain toward livestock feed
- Wheat and wheat product exports forecast to decline 2.8% despite second-largest harvest on record
- Stocks-to-use ratio expected at 14.7%, below the five-year average of 15.5%, indicating tighter supplies
Canada's 2026 wheat crop is on track to be the country's second largest on record, but smaller supplies and weaker grades mean exports are unlikely to match last season's record pace, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The FAS office in Ottawa based its Nov. 4 Grain and Feed Update on Statistics Canada's August model-based estimate. That estimate puts 2026 wheat production in Western Canada at 36.1 million metric tons: 26.5 million metric tons of spring wheat, 6.4 million of durum and 3.3 million of winter wheat. That is down 9.6% from 2025-26.
The report attributes the drop to both lower harvested area and lower yields. Wet, cool weather delayed planting, and intense July heat across Western Canada cut yields. Even so, yields for spring, durum and winter wheat all topped their five-year averages.
Quality is the bigger concern for buyers. Early results from the Canadian Grain Commission's Harvest Sample Program show only 79% of Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) samples graded No. 2 or better as of Oct. 26, compared with 91% a year earlier. The report links the decline to heavy rain at harvest. About 20% of the 1,050 CWRS samples graded No. 3 or feed, against a five-year average of 7%. If that holds, it would be the largest share of low-grade CWRS since 2019. Only about half of samples have been published, and the figures could shift.
That shift pushes more wheat toward feed. FAS forecasts total 2026-27 wheat consumption to fall on slightly lower food use, while feed use rises because of poorer quality and grading. Feed-grade samples made up 8.9% of CWRS results so far, up from 5.5% last year. Large supplies of corn and barley are expected to further dampen feed wheat prices in the West, the report said.
On exports, FAS forecasts total wheat and wheat product shipments to fall 2.8%. Non-durum exports started strong but are unlikely to exceed last year's record 23.9 million metric tons. Durum exports are forecast to decline slightly as North African buyers draw on large crops in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. The report said a higher share of No. 3 CWRS could make Canadian wheat more attractive to price-sensitive importers, including Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador.
FAS expects stocks to tighten, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.7%, below the five-year average of 15.5%. Imports are forecast to fall 3% as more feed-grade wheat is grown domestically.
Statistics Canada will publish final 2026 production estimates in December, based on a producer survey conducted in October and early November.
