The European Union's soybean harvest is expected to drop approximately 20% in 2026 due to widespread heat and drought conditions, falling from 2.97 million metric tons in 2025 to about 2.36 million metric tons, according to Donau Soja analysis.
- EU soybean production projected to fall from 2.97 million metric tons in 2025 to 2.36 million metric tons in 2026, a 20% decline
- Average EU yields hit 2.26 metric tons per hectare, which is 15% below the five-year average
- Austria's crop expected to drop 30% with lowest yields in 13 years; Hungary's harvest declining 45%
- Non-GM soybean prices reached 513-530 euros per metric ton in October, the highest in three years
- EU soybean self-sufficiency remains at 8%, deepening reliance on imports from South America and the U.S.
Heat and drought are set to cut the 2026 soybean harvest in the European Union (EU) by about 20%, according to Donau Soja, a Vienna-based organization that works with farmers, processors and retailers to build a European non-genetically modified (non-GM) soy supply.
In an interview published Tuesday on the organization's website, Donau Soja market analyst Bertalan Kruppa said the harvest across the 27 EU member states will fall from 2.97 million metric tons in 2025 to about 2.36 million metric tons. The organization's September Market Report, released Oct. 1, put EU output at 2.4 million metric tons, potentially the lowest in a decade. That report cited a European Commission crop-monitoring bulletin putting average EU yields at 2.26 metric tons per hectare, 15% below the five-year average.
The losses are widespread. Kruppa expects Austria's crop to fall about 30%, with yields at their lowest level in 13 years, and Hungary's to drop about 45% to 95,000 metric tons. Outside the EU, Serbia's harvest is expected to fall about 40% to 100,000 to 110,000 metric tons, down from 600,000 metric tons three years ago. Kruppa blamed heat across large parts of Western Europe and a severe lack of rain.
Germany and Poland are the exceptions. German production is forecast to rise about 2% to 134,000 metric tons on a larger planted area, even as yields per hectare decline. Poland is likely to become the EU's third-largest soybean producer for the first time, behind Italy and France.
The smaller crop deepens Europe's reliance on imports, most of which come from South America and the U.S., Kruppa said.
"Soya self-sufficiency has remained constant at around 8% in recent years. A decline in harvest volumes of around 20% would probably reduce self-sufficiency by 1 to 2 percentage points," Kruppa said.
Ukraine, Europe's largest soybean producer, is central to that equation for non-GM buyers. Forecasts for its crop range from 3.8 million to 4.8 million metric tons, a decline of 2% to 20%. Kruppa said logistical problems and a smaller Ukrainian harvest could noticeably affect non-GM supply next season.
Prices are already reacting. In mid-October, non-GM soybeans cost 513 to 518 euros per metric ton in northern Italy and 525 to 530 euros in southern Germany, the highest in three years. High-protein non-GM soybeans in northern Germany reached 670 to 680 euros per metric ton, about 10% above a month earlier and about 50% above the start of the year.
Kruppa tied the increase to the war in Ukraine, higher transport costs and problems moving exports through the Black Sea.
"Lower supply and higher import costs are driving prices up. This puts processors and feed manufacturers in a difficult position," Kruppa said.
Donau Soja cautioned that its forecasts may change as weather, crop and market conditions develop, and estimates for Ukraine's harvest remain wide.
