Farmer sentiment improved in October as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose to 126, primarily due to government agriculture payments and improved current conditions, though concerns about trade policy and long-term economic direction continue to weigh on producers' future outlook.
- The Purdue-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose three points to 126 in October, with current conditions jumping 16 points following USDA payment rollouts.
- The Index of Future Expectations slipped two points, reflecting farmer concerns about trade policy and tariffs affecting agriculture's long-term prospects.
- High input costs remain the top concern among surveyed farmers, with only 35% believing tariffs would strengthen agriculture long-term.
- The Farm Capital Investment Index climbed to 55, its highest level since December, yet only 20% of farmers said it was a good time to invest in machinery and buildings.
- 62% of producers report strong balance sheets, down from 76% in January, indicating declining financial confidence despite current sentiment gains.
Farmer sentiment edged higher in October as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose three points to 126, driven by a 16-point jump in producers' views of current conditions.
The Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture and CME Group released the results Tuesday. The survey of 400 farmers nationwide ran Oct. 12-16. The Index of Future Expectations slipped two points, and high input costs remained the top concern among respondents.
The gain in current conditions coincided with the rollout of Agriculture Risk Coverage-County and Price Loss Coverage payments from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in October, according to the report. Purdue said the survey did not ask respondents directly about the effect of those payments.
The Farm Financial Performance Index rose from 90 to 94, though it remains below its 2026 peak of 103 in August. The Farm Capital Investment Index climbed from 39 to 55, its highest level since last December. Even so, only 20% of respondents said it was a good time to invest in machinery and buildings, a reading that matters for equipment dealers and grain storage builders.
About 62% of producers agreed or strongly agreed that their operation has a strong balance sheet, down from 76% in January. Some 60% said their farm holds a solid working capital position.
Long-run policy is the drag on expectations. Only 35% of respondents said increased U.S. use of tariffs would strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run, compared with 49% to 70% in earlier surveys. Fewer than half, 48%, said the country is headed in the "right direction," the second straight month below the average of more than 60% recorded from July 2025 to June 2026. That skepticism matters for grain merchandisers and exporters whose business depends on trade access.
Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of the center, tied the split between current and future sentiment to policy.
"While producers saw some relief this month due to government program support, many remain uncertain about how future policy decisions could affect agriculture," Langemeier said. "Responses to our policy questions suggest that concerns about trade policy and the country's broader direction are shaping how producers view agriculture's long-term prospects."
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell one point to 125, and the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dropped six points to 162 after reaching a record 168 in September. Respondents named alternative investments, interest rates and inflation as the factors with the greatest influence on land values.
The next barometer report is scheduled for release Dec. 1, 2026.
