The U.S. rice supply for the 2026/27 marketing year is forecast at 275.8 million hundredweight, a slight increase from last month’s estimate due to higher beginning stocks. The June Rice Outlook, released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, marks the lowest total supply since 2022/23, mainly because of a 20 percent drop in long-grain rice production.
Supply and production details
The increase in beginning stocks to 54.8 million hundredweight follows adjustments in trade for the 2025/26 marketing year. Total production for 2026/27 is forecast at 175.2 million hundredweight, unchanged from last month. Long-grain rice production is expected to fall to 122.5 million hundredweight, the lowest since 2011/12, as farmers reduce harvested acreage amid low prices and high input costs.
Imports for 2025/26 were lowered by 0.5 million hundredweight to 43.2 million, reflecting slower-than-expected medium- and short-grain rice shipments. Long-grain imports remain steady at 39 million hundredweight for 2026/27.
Exports face challenges
U.S. long-grain rice exports for 2025/26 were reduced by 1 million hundredweight to 50 million, the lowest volume since 1985/86. Haiti remains the top market, but increased shipments from Pakistan and competition from South American exporters have limited U.S. sales. Disruptions in logistics with Iraq have also affected exports.
Mexico’s rice imports have declined about 20 percent in the current marketing year, with the U.S. losing significant market share to Brazil and Uruguay. U.S. exporters accounted for roughly 40 percent of Mexico’s rice imports so far, down from 85 percent in 2021/22.
Crop progress and conditions
By June 7, 94 percent of the U.S. rice crop had emerged, ahead of the five-year average. Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri all reported emergence rates exceeding last year’s pace. However, drought conditions ranging from moderate to extreme affect parts of these states.
California’s rice crop is nearly fully planted and rated good to excellent. The region experienced record-high heat in March, followed by cooler temperatures and episodic rain that delayed planting. Recent temperatures have risen again, with drier-than-normal conditions observed in northern California.
Price outlook
The season-average farm price for all rice in 2025/26 was raised 40 cents to $12.50 per hundredweight, driven by higher medium- and short-grain prices. Prices for 2026/27 remain unchanged at $13.50 per hundredweight.
