Global agricultural markets are expected to experience moderate growth over the next decade, with biofuel production leading expansion while traditional crop sectors show signs of slowing momentum, according to a new international market outlook released by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.
Brazil leads ethanol expansion
The comprehensive analysis, published in April 2026, projects world ethanol production will increase 1.4% annually, rising from 141 billion liters to 163 billion liters through 2035. Brazil emerges as the primary growth driver, with production expected to expand 2.9% per year as the country’s RenovaBio program continues supporting both consumption and production.
“The majority of this growth comes from Brazil and countries implementing new mandates,” researchers noted in the report. Brazilian corn ethanol production alone is projected to increase 3.5% annually, adding more than 5 billion liters to the country’s ethanol market over the projection period.
The United States, while maintaining its position as a major producer, shows more modest expansion with ethanol production increasing just 0.3% per year. This slower growth reflects market maturity and regulatory constraints compared to emerging markets with new biofuel mandates.
Biodiesel markets show regional variations
Biomass-based diesel markets also demonstrate steady expansion, with global production projected to increase 2.5% annually. The United States, Indonesia and Brazil lead this growth, though regional dynamics vary significantly. Indonesia’s production and consumption are both expected to rise 3.5% per year, with all output consumed domestically to meet higher blending mandates.
Malaysia presents a contrasting picture, with production nearly doubling over the projection period while less than half is consumed domestically. The remainder positions Malaysia as a growing exporter in global biodiesel markets.
EU faces electrification headwinds
European Union markets face headwinds from increased vehicle electrification. Overall diesel and biodiesel usage is projected to decrease over the period, with domestic biomass-based diesel use falling 7.5% over the next decade. The EU increasingly meets mandates through domestic production rather than imports, shrinking net trade.
Oilseed production growth slows
Traditional crop markets show more restrained growth patterns. Global oilseed production is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.5% annually, roughly half the pace of the previous decade. Soybeans maintain their dominant position, accounting for approximately two-thirds of global oilseed production.
Brazil continues gaining market share in soybean production, with projections showing the country averaging 42% of global output during the forecast period. Argentina and the United States are expected to cede some market share, with projection averages of 12% and 27% respectively.
China reshapes soybean trade patterns
China’s soybean import patterns reflect ongoing trade relationship adjustments. Net imports from all suppliers are expected to increase 24% from recent history, reaching 128 million metric tons by 2035-36. However, the U.S. share of China’s imports is projected at 19% over the projection period, down from 29% in the prior decade.
The research incorporates macroeconomic assumptions from S&P’s December forecast, though researchers note the analysis was completed before recent Middle East developments that may impact price projections. Real world GDP growth is expected to be 2.7% in 2026, declining to 2.5% by 2035.
