U.S. wheat exports are projected to reach their highest level in five years during the 2025/26 marketing year, according to the June Wheat Outlook report released Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.
The export forecast was raised by 25 million bushels to 825 million bushels, representing the strongest export performance since the 2020/21 marketing year. This upward revision is supported by a rapid pace of early export sales, which have reached 4.9 million metric tons as of late May—the highest level in 12 years.
"U.S. wheat supplies are ample this year, with production up 8 percent from the recent 5-year average and ending stocks projected to build for the third straight marketing year," the report stated. "With larger supplies year over year and a weaker U.S. dollar, U.S. wheat prices are currently competitive with other major exporters."
Despite these favorable conditions, analysts note that U.S. exports are not expected to increase dramatically due to substantial supplies from key competitors, particularly Russia and the European Union.
Total U.S. wheat production for 2025/26 is forecast at 1,921 million bushels, virtually unchanged from last month's estimate but down 3 percent from the previous year. The June 12 Crop Production report showed winter wheat production holding steady at 1,382 million bushels, with increases in Soft Red Winter and White Winter production offsetting reductions in Hard Red Winter output.
The season-average farm price for 2025/26 was reduced by 10 cents to $5.40 per bushel, reflecting market expectations for the coming year. The current marketing year's price remains unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.
The USDA will release its first survey-based production forecasts for Durum and Other Spring Wheat in the July Crop Production report.
