The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for corn exports in the 2024/25 marketing year by 50 million bushels to 2.65 billion bushels, citing stronger-than-expected demand from international buyers, according to the June Feed Outlook report released Monday.
This upward revision marks the highest export projection since the 2020/21 season when exports exceeded 2.74 billion bushels and reflects a pace running approximately 26% ahead of the previous marketing year.
"Recent export movements have exceeded earlier expectations, particularly shipments to Japan, Colombia, and Mexico," said Jennifer Bond, USDA economist. "While seasonal strengthening of export sales is typical, this year's counter-seasonal surge has outpaced previous projections."
The increased export forecast directly reduces ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year to 1.36 billion bushels, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 8.9%. Despite the tightening supply situation, the USDA maintained its season-average farm price projection at $4.35 per bushel.
For the upcoming 2025/26 marketing year, the carryover reduction flows through to lower beginning stocks, decreasing the total corn supply forecast by 50 million bushels to 17.21 billion bushels, which would still represent a record high volume.
Multiple factors are supporting the current robust export pace, including a slight delay in Brazil's safrinha corn harvest and slower-than-anticipated early-season shipments from Argentina, combined with competitive U.S. corn prices on the global market.
Meanwhile, the 2025 corn crop is developing on schedule with 97% planted and 87% emerged as of June 8, according to the USDA's Crop Progress report. Approximately 71% of the nation's corn crop is rated in good to excellent condition, with particularly strong ratings in Iowa and Minnesota.
The sorghum balance sheet remains unchanged ahead of the USDA's end-of-June Acreage report, while the all-barley season average farm price for 2024/25 was lowered by 5 cents to $6.45 per bushel due to expectations of a reduced proportion of higher-priced malt barley.
