U.S. ethanol production and exports have shown significant growth in the first quarter of 2025, according to the latest Grain Transportation Report released by the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service on June 12.
Year-to-date ethanol production through March 31 was up 2 percent compared to the same period in 2024, while rail shipments increased by 3 percent. The rise in production has led to a 5 percent increase in Class I ethanol rail movements compared to last year, and a 12 percent increase from the five-year average.
The Midwest remains the primary source of ethanol shipments, accounting for 71 percent of rail movements. Of these Midwest-originated shipments, 41 percent were destined for the East Coast, 29 percent for the Gulf Coast, and 19 percent for the West Coast.
Exports have also seen a significant boost, with year-to-date figures through April 30 up 6 percent from the same time last year and 29 percent above the five-year average. Canada, the European Union, India, the United Kingdom, and Colombia were the top five buyers, accounting for 73 percent of total U.S. ethanol exports.
The Port of Houston continues to be the primary exit point for U.S. ethanol exports, handling 56 percent of export volume year-to-date through May. This represents a 2 percent increase from the same period last year, driven by rising exports to India, the UK, and Colombia.
Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. consumption of fuel ethanol blended into motor gasoline will remain steady at 930,000 barrels per day in 2025, unchanged from 2024. However, a slight decline to 920,000 barrels per day is expected in 2026.
The USDA's May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report indicates that corn use for ethanol production is projected to remain stable from the 2024/25 to the 2025/26 marketing year.
For fiscal year 2025, U.S. ethanol exports are expected to reach a record-high $4.3 billion, up 3 percent from the fiscal year 2024 total of $4.17 billion. This increase is largely driven by national mandates to blend fuel ethanol with gasoline in key markets such as Canada, the EU, UK, and Colombia.
