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US winter wheat plantings rise, exports steady amid shifting market

USDA report reveals 2% increase in winter wheat acreage for 2025/26, while maintaining export forecast at 850 million bushels.

Nature Spring Grain Field
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service has released its January 2025 Wheat Outlook report, revealing significant shifts in the domestic wheat landscape. Key highlights from the report include:

  1. Winter Wheat Acreage Increase:

    • U.S. winter wheat area planted is projected to rise by 2% to 34.1 million acres for the 2025/26 marketing year.
    • This increase bucks the long-term trend of declining winter wheat acreage in favor of corn and soybeans.
    • Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and White Winter wheat varieties all show slight increases in planted area.
  2. Export Forecast and Trade Dynamics:

    • The 2024/25 U.S. wheat export forecast remains unchanged at 850 million bushels, up 20% from the 52-year low in 2023/24.
    • Cumulative export sales are 11% higher than the same period last year, with White wheat and Hard Red Winter wheat showing the largest year-over-year increases.
    • Total U.S. commitments account for 74% of the full marketing year forecast as of January 2, 2025.
  3. Domestic Stocks and Pricing:

    • December 1, 2024, wheat stocks reached 1,570 million bushels, up 10% from the previous year and the highest level in four years.
    • On-farm stocks hit a four-year high of 467 million bushels, while off-farm stocks rose to a three-year high of 1,103 million bushels.
    • The 2024/25 all-wheat season-average farm price is adjusted down $0.05 per bushel to $5.55, based on reported prices and future expectations.
  4. Feed Use and Imports:

    • All-wheat feed and residual use remains steady at 120 million bushels, with offsetting adjustments between Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring wheat.
    • Imports for 2024/25 are increased by 5 million bushels to 130 million bushels, with Hard Red Spring wheat seeing an increase.

This report underscores the dynamic nature of the wheat market, with plantings responding to market signals and export patterns shifting in response to global demand. The increase in winter wheat acreage, coupled with steady export forecasts, suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the U.S. wheat industry in the coming marketing year.

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