The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest Oil Crops Outlook report, released on January 14, 2025, highlights significant shifts in the domestic and global oilseed markets for the 2024/25 marketing year. Key findings include:
U.S. soybean production decreased by 95 million bushels to 4.36 billion bushels due to lower yields and reduced harvested acreage. The national average soybean yield declined by 1.0 bushel per acre to 50.7 bushels per acre, with harvested acreage reduced by 0.2 million acres to 86.1 million acres.
Domestic soybean ending stocks are forecast at 380 million bushels, down 90 million from last month's projection but still 38 million bushels higher than the 2023/24 ending stocks.
Global oilseed crush forecast increased by 2.1 million metric tons to 560.3 million metric tons, driven by higher soybean, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed processing.
Brazil's soybean crush forecast rose by 1.0 million metric tons, reflecting higher soybean meal exports in the first quarter.
U.S. soybean oil exports are projected to increase by 500 million pounds to 1.6 billion pounds, attracting non-traditional buyers like India. This increase is attributed to lower world supplies of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflowerseed oil.
U.S. soybean crush for September–November 2024 totaled 612.3 million bushels, a 6-percent increase from the previous year. In November, U.S. soybean processors reached a record-high daily crush volume of 7.0 million bushels per day and monthly crush volume of 210.0 million bushels.
The foreign oilseed production forecast for 2024/25 is reduced by 0.3 million metric tons to 551.9 million metric tons, primarily due to lower rapeseed production in India, Russia, and Uruguay, and lower soybean production in Russia and China.
Canola production in the U.S. was reduced by 91.8 million pounds to 4.8 billion pounds on lower yields and area. Canola exports are forecast at 628.0 million pounds, down from last month but still 70 percent above 2023/24 levels.
Sunflowerseed production is forecast down 159 million pounds to 1.15 billion pounds, with yields at 1,670 pounds per acre, the lowest since 2021/22.
Iraq has emerged as a new player in the soybean market, with a 2024/25 soybean crush forecast of 750,000 metric tons, following the construction of a crushing facility at the Umm Qasr Port.
Despite lower U.S. production, the seasonal average soybean price remains unchanged at $10.20 per bushel, reflecting complex market dynamics and global trade patterns. These shifts in production and demand are expected to significantly impact global oilseed meal and oil markets throughout the year, with implications for both producers and consumers in the agricultural sector.
