
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest Feed Outlook report, released on January 14, 2025, reveals significant changes in the domestic coarse grains market for the 2024/25 marketing year. Key findings include:
U.S. corn production estimate lowered by 276 million bushels to 14,867 million, due to a 2% decrease in yield to 179.3 bushels per acre.
Corn ending stocks forecast reduced by nearly 200 million bushels to 1.5 billion, pushing the season-average price up $0.15 to $4.25 per bushel.
Sorghum production raised to 343.9 million bushels, up 8.2% from 2023/24, driven by increased harvested area and yields.
U.S. corn export forecast lowered by 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion, reflecting reduced supplies.
Domestic corn use for ethanol production up 2.3% in September-November 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
The report also notes changes in the global coarse grains market:
- Increased foreign corn production, particularly in China, partially offsets the U.S. production cut.
- Brazil drives higher foreign corn consumption and lower trade.
- Argentina's export prospects improve, partly offsetting Brazil's reduced exports.
- China's expected corn imports are lowered.
These shifts in production and trade patterns are expected to have significant implications for global grain markets and prices in the coming months.