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IGC: Tight Outlook for World Grains Market

Inventories are predicted to drop of 46m tonnes year-on-year, the lowest in four years

The world grains market has a “tighter outlook” for 2018-19, the International Grains Council said, forecasting a further decline in stocks, which on one key measure will fall to their lowest in five years according to a report at Agrimoney.

The intergovernmental group, in its first full forecasts for world grains supply and demand next season, forecast inventories closing at 560m tonnes – a drop of 46m tonnes year-on-year, and indeed the lowest in four years.

“Initial projections for grains supply and demand in 2018-19 indicate a tighter outlook,” the council said.

Indeed, compared with consumption, to form the stocks-to-use ratio viewed as key indicator of price potential, inventories will come in at their smallest since 2013-14.

“Sustained growth in demand is predicted to result in another drawdown of stocks, and could see the ratio of stocks to use come down to its lowest in five years,” the IGC said.

On another much-watched pricing measure too, the level of inventories in the hands of exporting countries, the market will also be at its tightest in five years.

Read the full report at Agrimoney.

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