The United States and Brazil continue to compete fiercely in key overseas soybean markets, with transportation and landed costs playing a critical role in their competitiveness, according to the latest Grain Transportation Report from the Agricultural Marketing Service.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. Class I railroads and barge systems moved significant volumes of soybeans to major export hubs. However, rising farm values in the U.S. pushed landed costs higher year over year, despite some quarter-to-quarter declines in transportation costs on certain routes.
For shipments to Shanghai, China, total transportation costs from Minneapolis and Davenport via the U.S. Gulf fell slightly from the third to fourth quarter of 2025, driven by lower truck and barge rates, partly due to reduced diesel fuel prices. Similarly, costs from Fargo and Sioux Falls via the Pacific Northwest (PNW) also declined. Ocean freight rates, however, increased across all U.S. routes.
Brazil’s transportation costs to China and Europe rose year over year, driven by higher truck and ocean freight rates. Shipments from Mato Grosso and Goiás to Shanghai and Hamburg saw increased landed costs due to rising farm values and transportation expenses.
The transportation component accounted for about 22-23% of U.S. landed costs to China and 17-18% to Europe, while Brazil’s transportation share ranged from 20-26% for both destinations.
Despite the cost pressures, Brazil exported a record 85.43 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans to China in 2025, up from 72.52 mmt in 2024. In contrast, U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted to 7.37 mmt in 2025 from 26.81 mmt the previous year, reflecting shifting trade dynamics.
Total U.S. soybean exports for marketing year 2025/26 are projected at 42.86 mmt, down from 51.23 mmt in 2024/25. Brazil’s exports are forecast to rise to 114 mmt from 103.14 mmt.
