The ocean freight market for bulk grain shipments experienced a year of fluctuating rates in 2025, according to the Grain Transportation Report released Feb. 5, 2026, by the Agricultural Marketing Service. Despite a rise in rates during the second half of the year, average annual freight costs remained below both 2024 levels and the prior four-year average.
In 2025, shipping bulk grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan averaged $50.83 per metric ton, down 11% from 2024. Rates from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to Japan averaged $28.09, a 13% decline. The cost difference between the U.S. Gulf and PNW routes narrowed by 13% to $22.74 per metric ton. Shipping grain from the U.S. Gulf to Europe also dropped 12% to $23.69 per metric ton.
The year began with typical seasonal declines in freight rates, driven by ample vessel supply and reduced dry bulk demand during global holidays. China’s iron ore imports fell 8% in early 2025, contributing to lower demand. Rates stabilized in the second quarter amid mixed cargo flows, with China’s iron ore imports rising while coal imports declined due to increased domestic renewable energy production.
Freight rates climbed in the third quarter, supported by strong U.S. Gulf grain shipments and robust Chinese commodity imports. However, drought-induced low water levels in Argentina’s Paraná River slowed vessel loading, pushing costs higher.
Rates peaked in the third quarter but declined steadily from October through December, remaining above the previous quarter’s average. As of late January 2026, rates from the U.S. Gulf to Japan rose slightly to $51.75 per metric ton, a 16% increase year-over-year, while PNW rates increased to $29.00.
Looking ahead, ocean freight rates are expected to remain moderate or decline in early 2026 due to seasonal slowdowns. Analysts caution that China’s economic performance and policy decisions, along with growing vessel supply, could exert downward pressure on rates. While new vessel orders surged in late 2025, signaling industry recovery, the balance between supply growth and demand expansion will be critical in shaping freight costs throughout 2026.
