Global grain trade is projected to fall by 7 percent in the 2024/25 marketing year compared to the previous year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's April 2025 "Grain: World Markets and Trade" report released this week.
The decline encompasses all major grain categories, including wheat, corn, and rice, although the factors driving the contraction vary significantly across commodities.
Wheat trade faces steepest decline
Wheat trade is forecast to drop by 9 percent compared to the prior year, marking the largest year-to-year decline in decades. This reduction stems from increased production in key importing countries such as China and Pakistan, reducing their need for foreign supplies. Additionally, Turkey has implemented import restrictions due to high beginning stocks.
Meanwhile, major exporters including Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine are experiencing smaller harvests. Despite these shifts in supply and demand, global wheat prices have remained relatively stable over the past year.
U.S. wheat quotes dropped for most classes since the March report, with Soft Red Winter falling $10 per ton to $226 and Soft White Winter dropping $5 per ton to $239. The USDA maintained its U.S. season-average farm price forecast at $5.50 per bushel.
Corn market adjusts to changing trade patterns
The report indicates corn trade will decline by 5 percent from the previous year, with global production down overall. The United States, as the top exporter, is experiencing the largest production decline, while Ukraine has a sharply smaller crop and Argentina is forecast modestly lower.
China, which was the second-largest corn importer in 2023/24, is seeing increased domestic production, leading to a 65 percent reduction in corn imports and a 46 percent drop in sorghum imports.
U.S. corn export bids rose slightly by $1 per ton to $214, while Brazilian bids fell $3 per ton to $223 as markets monitor weather conditions in key growing areas. Ukraine export bids increased by $10 per ton to $236 due to limited supplies. The U.S. season-average farm price for corn remains unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.
Rice trade shows resilience amid shifts
Global rice production is up to a new record, 3 percent higher than the prior year, with increased forecasts for India, Indonesia, and Cambodia. Despite this growth, global rice trade is nearly unchanged from last year's record high.
India's removal of export restrictions is expected to allow its exports to rebound, particularly to Bangladesh and Sub-Saharan Africa. However, these increases will be more than offset by declines from other exporters. Indonesia is scaling back imports due to larger domestic production.
Overall, rice trade is experiencing more modest declines compared to wheat and corn, with global consumption raised to a record level and growth across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Production and consumption outlook
Despite the trade contraction, global wheat production is still forecast at record levels, though slightly lower than previous projections due to decreases in Saudi Arabia and the European Union. Global consumption is forecast down, largely due to declines in food, seed, and industrial consumption for India and China.
For corn, the USDA left global production essentially unchanged this month, as larger crops for the European Union and Tanzania mostly offset cuts to Moldova, Cambodia, and Kenya.
The report indicates that these shifting trade patterns reflect complex interactions between production, consumption, and policy decisions across various regions, creating a challenging landscape for grain traders and agricultural markets in the coming year.
