The USDA reduced its 2026/27 corn production forecast to 15.8 billion bushels due to lower yields, with Plains States experiencing the largest declines from drought and extreme heat. Despite the reduction, the corn crop remains the second-largest on record, and corn prices have risen to $4.80 per bushel as supplies tighten.
- USDA cut 2026/27 corn production forecast by 1% to 15.8 billion bushels, down 1.2 billion from 2025
- Corn yield forecast dropped 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5, marking a 1% decline
- Plains States hit hardest: Nebraska down 67 million bushels, North Dakota down 48 million, Kansas down 39 million
- Season-average farm price rose 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel due to tightening supplies
- Stocks-to-use ratio fell to 9.7%, the tightest since 2020/21, as global production also declined
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service on Sept. 15 revised the 2026/27 corn production forecast down to 15.8 billion bushels, a 1% decrease from the previous month’s projection. Despite the reduction and a drop of 1.2 billion bushels from last year, the 2026 corn crop is still projected to be the second-largest on record.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service lowered its corn yield forecast by 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5, marking a 1% decline. The agency also cut its harvested area forecast by 86,000 acres to 88.5 million acres.
Plains States see largest declines
The three largest production changes occurred in Plains States that experienced drought and extreme heat during critical growth periods. Nebraska’s forecast dropped 67 million bushels, North Dakota fell 48 million bushels, and Kansas declined 39 million bushels.
North Dakota’s situation stood out among the affected states. While harvested area increased by 40,000 acres compared to last month, the yield forecast plummeted 12 bushels per acre, more than an 8% drop.
Of the 32 states receiving production estimates, 21 saw their forecasts decline. Not all news was negative, however. Iowa and New York posted the largest increases, up 38 million bushels and 20 million bushels respectively, both driven by higher yield projections. Arkansas, Iowa, Mississippi and Tennessee are projected to see record corn yields in 2026.
Sorghum takes a hit
Sorghum production also fell in September’s report. The USDA reduced the 2026/27 sorghum production forecast by 12.5 million bushels to reflect both lower yields and reduced harvested area.
The yield forecast came in at 54.4 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from August. Harvested area dropped 2% to 5.2 million acres from 5.4 million acres. If realized, this would represent a year-over-year decrease of 35%.
Texas saw the largest decline in expected sorghum production, down 3.9 million bushels to 71.4 million. The state’s sorghum yield forecast of 42 bushels per acre would be the lowest since 1962, when yields hit 39 bushels per acre.
Kansas, the largest sorghum-producing state, saw its production forecast fall 3.4 million bushels to 164.2 million. Unlike other states, Kansas saw no change in expected yields, with the entire decrease attributed to a 50,000-acre reduction in harvested area.
Prices rise on tighter supplies
The season-average farm price forecast for corn rose 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel for 2026/27. The increase reflects rising futures prices since June and a tightening balance sheet. The projected stocks-to-use ratio fell to 9.7% from 10.1% in August—the tightest since 2020/21, when it reached 8.3%.
Corn futures contracts with delivery months in the 2026/27 marketing year averaged up $0.25 per bushel in August compared to July, representing a 5% increase. Compared to June, prices were up $0.46 per bushel, or about 10%.
The sorghum price forecast also increased, up 30 cents to $4.60 per bushel for 2026/27. The 2025/26 sorghum forecast rose 15 cents to $3.70 per bushel.
Global production affected
Global coarse grains production for 2026/27 was reduced 5.1 million metric tons, mainly due to U.S. reductions of 5.4 million MT for corn and 0.3 million MT for sorghum.
El Niño weather patterns affected multiple growing regions. India’s corn crop was reduced 2 million MT to 50 million due to delayed monsoon rains. Kenya’s corn harvest dropped 0.8 million MT to 2.2 million—potentially the smallest volume since 2000/01—after June and July rainfall hit the lowest level since 1980.
Australia provided the bright spot internationally. Favorable rainfall in August led to a 3 million MT increase in barley production to a record 17.1 million MT.
