The USDA raised its 2026/27 soybean production forecast to 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from the previous month, driven by higher planted acreage and improved yield expectations reaching 52.8 bushels per acre, while China's renewed soybean purchases are boosting export forecasts to 1.69 billion bushels.
- Production forecast: USDA increased 2026/27 soybean production to 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from previous forecast
- Yield records: National average yield forecast at 52.8 bushels per acre, with record yields expected in seven states including Iowa and Illinois
- China's return: U.S. soybean exports forecast at 1.69 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels, reflecting renewed Chinese purchases after trade disputes
- Biofuel surge: Soybean oil reached record 1,556 million pounds monthly use in biodiesel production, accounting for 40% of total feedstock
- Price forecast: USDA raised season-average soybean price to $12 per bushel for 2026/27 marketing year
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year soybean production to 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from the previous month’s projection, according to the agency’s Oil Crops Outlook report released Sept. 15. The increase comes from both higher planted acreage and improved yield expectations, with the national average yield now forecast at 52.8 bushels per acre, up slightly from last month’s 52.7 bushels per acre estimate.
Planted soybean acreage increased by 0.1 million acres to 86.9 million acres, while harvested acreage rose to 85.9 million acres. The gains came primarily from North Dakota and South Dakota. If the forecasted yields are realized, they would set records for Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio.
China resumes soybean purchases
U.S. soybean export forecasts for 2026/27 increased by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion bushels, representing 165 million bushels above the current marketing year’s export estimate of 1.52 billion bushels. The uptick reflects renewed buying from China, which had zero outstanding sales during the same period last year due to ongoing trade disputes.
As of the marketing year’s week 52, China purchased 285 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, close to the five-year average of 311 million bushels. Total outstanding sales for the next marketing year reached 598 million bushels as of Aug. 27, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Export Sales report. However, purchases from other known foreign buyers dropped 37% compared to the same period last year.
Weather patterns mixed across growing regions
August weather proved variable across soybean-growing regions, with much of the Central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley experiencing moderately warm conditions and mixed precipitation. The Delta, Central and Southern Plains, Southwest and West regions recorded below-normal rainfall, while parts of the Northern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley received above-normal precipitation.
USDA objective yield surveys in 11 major soybean-producing states found pod counts with beans per 18 square feet were 5% below final 2025 counts but marginally higher than the last three-year average. About 13% of the U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves as of Aug. 30, three percentage points ahead of last year and four percentage points ahead of the five-year average.
Biofuel demand hits record levels
Soybean oil use in biomass-based diesel production reached a monthly record of 1,556 million pounds in June, exceeding soybean oil consumption for food, feed and other industrial uses. Soybean oil accounted for about 40% of total feedstocks consumed for biomass-based diesel production that month.
Biodiesel producers used 790 million pounds of soybean oil in June, 6% above the previous month, while renewable diesel producers increased soybean oil use to 766 million pounds, up 11% from the previous record. For the 2026/27 marketing year, soybean oil use for biofuels is forecast at 17.8 billion pounds, unchanged from last month but 3 billion pounds higher than revised use for 2025/26.
Prices and stocks outlook
The USDA raised its season-average soybean price forecast for 2026/27 to $12 per bushel. Soybean ending stocks for the marketing year are forecast at 310 million bushels, 10 million bushels lower than last month’s forecast. The soybean crush forecast remains unchanged at 2.78 billion bushels.
Soybean meal prices for 2026/27 were raised to $340 per short ton, up $30 from last month’s forecast and $15 higher than 2025/26. The increase reflects higher imports of soybean meal driven by stronger demand for organic soybean meal.
Global oilseed production rises
Global rapeseed production for 2026/27 is forecast at nearly 100 million metric tons, up 1.9 million metric tons from the previous month, with larger crops expected from Australia, Russia, Uruguay and Kazakhstan. Sunflowerseed production is forecast at 63.7 million metric tons, up 1 million metric tons.
Kazakhstan’s major oilseed production is forecast to reach a record high due to harvested acreage expansion of 24% to 2.8 million hectares. The country’s oilseed processing industry has modernized and expanded, with total crush capacity now exceeding 5 million metric tons annually.
