American farmers can expect higher prices for wheat, corn and soybeans this year, but they’ll be harvesting smaller crops in several categories, according to new World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its season-average price forecast for corn by 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel and increased wheat prices by 20 cents to $6.40 per bushel. Soybean prices jumped 60 cents to $12.00 per bushel.
The price increases come as production faces headwinds. Corn production for 2026/27 dropped to 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million bushels from last month’s forecast. The department blamed a yield reduction to 178.5 bushels per acre and a slight decrease in harvested area to 88.5 million acres.
“With declining supply only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks are lowered 86 million bushels to 1.6 billion,” the report stated.
Global grain markets are shifting as well. Australia’s wheat production climbed 3.0 million tons to 31.0 million tons thanks to favorable weather conditions in South Australia and Victoria. Canada also benefited from good conditions, with production up 1.0 million tons to 36.0 million.
But the war in the Black Sea region continues to disrupt exports. Russia and Ukraine saw reduced export forecasts based on weak August shipments as the conflict hampers logistics.
For soybeans, the outlook improved. Production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million from last month on higher harvested area and yield. The soybean yield of 52.8 bushels per acre represents a 0.1 bushel increase. Exports were raised 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion, though ending stocks dropped 10 million bushels to 310 million.
Rice supplies will be larger this year, with ending stocks projected 4.4 million hundredweight higher at 40.4 million. That’s still down 31% from last year. Beginning stocks were raised 4.6 million hundredweight to 58.4 million based on an August report. Production forecasts fell slightly by 0.2 million hundredweight to 158.2 million on lower harvested area.
The sugar industry faces serious challenges from mealy bug infestations affecting production in Louisiana and Florida. Louisiana’s cane sugar production dropped 13,852 short tons to 2.252 million. Florida decreased to 1.819 million short tons as two processors cut their forecasts, likely due to the pest problem.
“The industry is well aware of the mealy bug issues and is actively working to mitigate its effect on production,” the report noted. Since July, forecasted production has decreased 9.8% to the current projection.
Beet sugar production also fell, projected at 4.769 million short tons, down 22,354 from last month.
Cotton growers will see smaller harvests too. Production was reduced by 3% to 13.2 million bales as the national average yield also dropped 3% to 776 pounds per harvested acre. Yields and production are lower in the Delta and Southwest regions, though slightly higher in the Southeast and West.
Mill use was cut to 1.50 million bales as the U.S. textile base continues to shrink. Ending stocks are forecast at 3.60 million bales, down 10%, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26.1%, compared with 28.8% last month. The upland cotton farm price rose to 78 cents per pound from 75 cents.
Livestock and dairy markets are seeing significant changes. The forecast for 2026 red meat and poultry production fell, mostly on lower beef and pork output. Beef production was reduced because of a slower pace of fed cattle marketings in the third quarter, lighter dressed weights and lower cow slaughter in the fourth quarter.
Pork production dropped on expectations of slower slaughter and lighter dressed weights. Broiler production forecasts remained unchanged, but turkey production fell on lighter weights. Egg production increased on growth in the layer flock.
Cattle and hog price forecasts were lowered for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. The department cited lower-than-expected packer demand for cattle and recent price weakness for hogs.
Milk production forecasts rose for both 2026 and 2027. Based on the latest report, both cow inventories and output per cow increased. The all-milk price forecast was raised to $19.90 per hundredweight for 2026 but held at $19.80 for 2027.
Trade policies also factor into the outlook. On Sept. 8, the White House announced the exclusion of certain Canadian dairy products from U.S. imports, effective Sept. 29. Duties on certain Canadian dairy products took effect Aug. 21. The forecast assumes both measures remain in place throughout the forecast period.
