U.S. farmer sentiment edged up modestly in October 2025, driven primarily by optimism in the livestock sector, according to the latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index rose three points to 129, with the Index of Current Conditions climbing eight points to 130, while the Index of Future Expectations remained nearly flat at 129.
A tale of two economies
The survey revealed a stark contrast between livestock and crop producers. Livestock farmers expressed strong confidence fueled by record-high profitability in beef production. Conversely, crop producers reported a more pessimistic view, weighed down by poor profit margins across major crop enterprises.
“The financial outlook remains mixed,” said Michael Langemeier of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped 10 points to 78, reflecting declining expectations, especially among crop producers who anticipate weaker financial results compared to last year. Livestock producers, however, expect their financial performance to remain stable.
Investment and farmland values
Despite financial concerns, the Farm Capital Investment Index rose nine points to 62, buoyed by livestock producers’ more positive outlook. When asked how they would use potential USDA market facilitation payments, 53% of farmers said they would pay down debt, while 25% planned to strengthen working capital. Only 12% intended to invest in machinery.
Farmland value expectations improved, with the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rising seven points to 113. Thirty percent of respondents now expect farmland values to increase over the next year, up from 24% in September, while 17% anticipate declines.
Crop management adjustments
Among corn growers, nearly one-third (30%) plan no changes in 2026 production practices despite low prices. However, 29% intend to reduce phosphorus applications, 27% will adopt lower-cost seed traits or varieties, 16% plan to cut nitrogen use, and 11% expect to lower seeding rates.
Tariff policy uncertainty persists
While 58% of producers believe increased U.S. tariffs will strengthen the agricultural economy long-term—a rise from September—the share remains below spring levels near 70%. Notably, the percentage uncertain about tariff impacts doubled to 16%, reflecting growing ambiguity.
Despite these uncertainties, over 70% of farmers continue to feel the U.S. is headed in the “right direction.”
The October survey, conducted from Oct. 13-17, 2025, highlights the complex dynamics shaping U.S. agriculture as producers navigate profitability challenges, investment decisions, and policy uncertainties.
