The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 146 in June, down from 158 in May, indicating a weakening in farmer sentiment. The decline was primarily attributed to a shift in producers' expectations for the future, with the Index of Future Expectations dropping 18 points to 146.
The Current Conditions Index saw only a slight decrease, falling 2 points to 144. Despite these declines, all three indices remained well above year-ago levels. The June survey, conducted from June 9-13, 2025, revealed that changing perceptions regarding the agricultural export outlook were a key factor in producers' weaker outlook.
James Mintert, director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture, noted, "Fewer producers expressed optimism about future agricultural exports, which appears to be a significant driver behind the shift in sentiment."
The Farm Financial Performance Index fell 5 points to 104, indicating a somewhat weaker financial outlook for farms. However, an index above 100 still suggests that U.S. farmers expect stronger financial performance in 2025 compared to 2024. Strong income prospects for the livestock sector, particularly among beef producers, are helping to support the farm income outlook.
Despite the decline in the financial condition index, the Farm Capital Investment Index improved to 60, up 5 points from May. This increase was due to a higher percentage of farmers (24% in June, up from 19% in May) saying it's a good time to invest. However, the percentage of producers planning to reduce farm machinery purchases this year rose to 54% in June, up from 48% in May.
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index drifted lower in June, falling 4 points to 120. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in the percentage of producers expecting values to rise, from 37% to 32%.
Shifting expectations for agricultural exports emerged as a key factor influencing farmer sentiment. In June, 41% of producers said they expect agricultural exports to increase over the next 5 years, down from 52% in May. The percentage of respondents expecting exports to decline rose to 16%, compared to 12% a month earlier.
The survey also revealed a shift in producers' perspective on free trade. Only 31% of farmers in June strongly agreed that "Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries," compared to nearly half (49%) who held this view five years ago.
Concerns about the impact of tariffs on farm income persist, but have moderated since earlier in the year. In May and June, 45% of respondents expected the U.S.'s tariff policy to negatively impact their farm's income, down from 56% in March and April.
Michael Langemeier, associate director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture, concluded, "While farmers remain cautious about the trade outlook, there are signs that some of the acute concerns from earlier in the year are beginning to ease."
