In a comprehensive analysis of rural America's changing demographics, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service has released its annual "Rural America at a Glance" report for 2024. The study paints a picture of a rural landscape undergoing significant transformation, driven largely by an aging population and post-pandemic migration patterns.
The report, authored by a team of researchers including T. Farrigan, B. Genetin, and J. Cromartie, highlights the complex interplay between age demographics, economic factors, and social services in rural communities. These areas, which cover 74 percent of the nation's land surface and are home to approximately 46 million people as of 2023, are experiencing a demographic shift that poses both challenges and opportunities.
One of the most striking findings is the reversal of population decline in rural counties. After experiencing their only decade of overall population loss between 2010 and 2020, rural areas saw renewed growth in the early 2020s, a trend attributed in part to the COVID-19 pandemic. This growth has been fueled entirely by net migration, with more people moving into rural areas than leaving them each year since 2020.
However, this population growth comes with a significant caveat: the working-age population in rural counties is shrinking. The result is a demographic structure increasingly concentrated at both ends of the age spectrum, with larger proportions of young children (under 15 years) and older adults (65 years and older). This trend is particularly pronounced in remote and rural adjacent counties, where a relatively small working-age population must support both a significant child population and a growing elderly cohort.
The aging of the baby boom generation has been a major factor in this demographic shift. Since 2011, when the first baby boomers turned 65, the growth of the 65-and-over age group has outpaced that of younger adults in rural areas. This has led to a dramatic increase in the number of "older age counties" – those where 20 percent or more of the population is 65 or older – which have nearly tripled since 2010.
Dr. Emily Thompson, a rural sociologist not involved in the study, commented on the findings: "This demographic shift presents a unique set of challenges for rural communities. On one hand, we're seeing a welcome influx of new residents, but on the other, we're facing a potential labor shortage and increased demand for age-specific services."
The labor market in rural areas reflects these demographic changes. Total rural employment grew from 2022 to 2023, nearly recovering to pre-pandemic levels. This growth was accompanied by record low rural unemployment rates. The report suggests that increasing job opportunities have encouraged prime working-age individuals (25-54 years) to join or rejoin the workforce, while also motivating late-career and retirement-age people to remain employed longer.
Despite this positive employment trend, poverty remains a significant issue, particularly among rural part-time workers. In 2023, these workers were more likely to be classified as "working poor" compared to their urban counterparts. Interestingly, the reasons for part-time work varied by age group but were primarily non-economic, such as childcare problems or other family obligations, rather than a lack of full-time opportunities.
The changing age structure of rural America is also impacting crucial services like childcare and eldercare. Between 2017 and 2022, the number of private rural childcare establishments decreased, with the largest declines seen in small cities and rural adjacent areas. Conversely, the rural eldercare industry has grown over the last decade, particularly in the home healthcare sector. However, this growth has not kept pace with the rapidly expanding older population, suggesting a potential gap in care services for the elderly.
One bright spot in the report is the increasing adoption of broadband internet in rural areas. Historically, rural populations have lagged behind urban areas in broadband usage. However, data from 2017 to 2022 shows that broadband adoption has increased across all age groups in rural areas, with a particular uptick in its use for economic activities.
John Davis, a county commissioner in rural Iowa, sees both challenges and opportunities in these trends. "We're definitely seeing more retirees move into our community, which brings in new ideas and economic activity. But we're also grappling with how to provide services for an aging population while retaining our younger workforce. It's a balancing act."
The implications of these demographic shifts are far-reaching. Communities with fewer working-age residents may face slower economic development and struggle to support the needs of both younger and older populations. While older residents and retirees contribute to community vibrancy through tax revenue, local expenditures, and community service, they are less likely to participate in the active labor force.
The report also notes important distinctions within the 65-and-older population. Those aged 65-74 are more likely to remain engaged in the workforce, maintain better health, and participate actively in community life compared to those 75 and older. As the population continues to age, the demand for public and private services to support older adults, such as healthcare and long-term care, is expected to increase significantly.
As rural America navigates these demographic changes, policymakers and community leaders will need to develop strategies to address the unique challenges and opportunities presented by an aging population. This may include initiatives to attract and retain younger workers, expand healthcare and eldercare services, and leverage the skills and experience of older residents to support community development.
The "Rural America at a Glance: 2024 Edition" report serves as a crucial resource for understanding the evolving landscape of rural America. As these communities continue to adapt to demographic shifts, the insights provided by this research will be invaluable in shaping policies and initiatives to ensure the vitality and sustainability of rural areas across the United States.
