U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year (MY) are projected to decrease by 55 million bushels to 295 million bushels, primarily due to a surge in domestic demand, particularly for soybean crush, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) May 2025 Oil Crops Outlook. This tightening of domestic supply comes despite nearly unchanged overall U.S. soybean supply, with higher carryover stocks offsetting marginally lower production.
U.S. soybean production for MY 2025/26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down nearly 1% from the previous year. This decline is attributed to a 3.6 million-acre reduction in planted area, now estimated at 83.5 million acres, as farmers shifted to more profitable crops like corn. The national average soybean yield is forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal growing conditions.
Key projections for U.S. soybeans in MY 2025/26 include:
- Domestic Crush: Forecast to increase 3% to a record-high 2.49 billion bushels. This is driven by a projected 2% increase in domestic soybean meal demand, supported by domestic pork and poultry production forecasts and competitive meal prices. Expanding U.S. soybean crush capacity is also a factor.
- Soybean Meal Exports: Expected to rise by 0.6 million short tons to a record 18.0 million short tons.
- Soybean Oil for Biofuels: Use of soybean oil for biomass-based diesel production is projected to increase 6% from the revised MY 2024/25 estimate to 13.9 billion pounds.
- Exports: U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.82 billion bushels, 35 million bushels lower than MY 2024/25, leading to a projected drop in the U.S. share of global soybean trade to 26%, down 2 percentage points due to strong competition from South America.
- Prices: The season-average farm price for soybeans is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, up from $9.95 in MY 2024/25. Soybean meal prices are forecast to increase to $310.00 per short ton, and soybean oil prices to $0.46 per pound.
Total U.S. oilseeds production for MY 2025/26 is forecast higher at 128.5 million metric tons. While canola seed production is expected to decline 6% due to lower planted area, sunflowerseed and peanut production are forecast to rise. Cottonseed production is also projected to increase to 4.5 million short tons, with cottonseed crush anticipated to reach 1.45 million short tons, up 200,000 short tons from MY 2024/25.
Globally, oilseed production is forecast to reach a new record high of 692 million metric tons in MY 2025/26, an increase of nearly 15 million metric tons from the previous year. Higher soybean production, expected to hit a record 426.8 million metric tons, accounts for most of this gain. Brazil is forecast to produce a record 175 million metric tons of soybeans and is projected to dominate global soybean trade, accounting for 59%.
Global soybean crush volumes are projected to increase, driven by demand growth for soybean meal and oil. China’s soybean imports are forecast to rise to 112 million metric tons. Despite increased global trade and use, global soybean ending stocks for MY 2025/26 are projected at 124.3 million metric tons, up 1.2 million metric tons from MY 2024/25, with higher stocks in South America and lower stocks in the United States. Global soybean meal consumption is forecast to increase by 4% to 363 million metric tons, supported by higher feed demand and competitive prices.
