Global soybean production is projected to hit a new record in the 2025/26 marketing year, driven by another bumper crop in Brazil, according to the latest World Markets and Trade report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service.
The report forecasts global soybean output to rise by nearly 6 million tons to approximately 427 million tons. This increase comes despite expected lower harvests in the United States, Canada and Argentina.
Brazil is set to further cement its position as the world's leading soybean exporter, with shipments forecast to reach a new high. The country's market share is expected to grow to 59% of global soybean exports in 2025/26.
Global soybean imports are also projected to reach a record level, fueled by increased demand from China, Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The report highlights a continued recovery in oilseed processing sectors across these countries.
U.S. soybean exports are forecast to decline slightly due to a smaller domestic crop and increased crush utilization. The USDA projects U.S. ending stocks to fall to 8 million tons.
Global soybean consumption is expected to rise in all major markets except the European Union, driven by growth in global feed demand and competitive soybean meal prices. The report notes that higher domestic consumption is increasingly supported by greater domestic processing of soybeans rather than increased trade.
Soybean meal trade is forecast to reach a new record, although growth is expected to slow from the robust gains seen in recent years. Argentina, the leading soybean meal exporter, is projected to modestly increase its shipments, with similar gains expected from the United States.
The USDA projects the U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans at $10.25 per bushel for the 2025/26 marketing year.
