The U.S. is on track for a record-high corn crop and supplies in the 2025/26 marketing year, supporting increased export forecasts but also signaling lower season-average farm prices, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) in its May 2025 Feed Outlook report. The report also highlights varied outlooks for other U.S. feed grains and forecasts record global coarse grain production.
U.S. corn production for 2025/26 is projected at a record 15,820 million bushels. This forecast is based on expected year-over-year planted area gains, indicated in the March 31, 2025, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Prospective Plantings report, and weather-adjusted trend yields. Corn planted area is estimated to rise by 4.7 million acres to 95.326 million acres, with harvested area anticipated at 87.4 million acres.
Key projections for U.S. corn from the ERS report include:
- Total supply: Forecast at 17,260 million bushels for 2025/26, up year-over-year.
- Exports: The 2024/25 export forecast was raised by 50 million bushels to 2,600 million, the highest since the 2020/21 marketing year. For 2025/26, exports are projected at 2,675 million bushels, up 75 million from the revised 2024/25 figure. This is attributed to increased U.S. price competitiveness and slower shipments from Argentina and Brazil.
- Stocks: The 2025/26 stock-to-use ratio is forecast at 11.6%, 2.4% above the 2024/25 ratio. The U.S. is expected to be the only major exporter with an increase in stocks.
- Prices: The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.20 per bushel for 2025/26, a decrease of 15 cents from the $4.35 per bushel forecast for 2024/25.
- Domestic use: Feed and residual use in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 150 million bushels due to the larger crop and lower prices. Ethanol demand is projected to remain on par with 2024/25, with the recent EPA decision to allow year-round E15 sales not expected to materially impact demand in the short term.
The outlook for other U.S. feed grains varies:
- Sorghum: U.S. sorghum exports for 2025/26 are projected at 250 million bushels, a significant increase of 150 million bushels from 2024/25, largely due to demand from China. Production is expected to rise by nearly 50 million bushels, with total supplies reaching 444 million bushels, the highest since 2021/22. The stock-to-use ratio is forecast to tighten to 9.5%.
- Barley: Total barley supplies for 2025/26 are projected to be up modestly at just over 223 million bushels, with production increasing slightly to 147 million bushels. However, demand for feed barley is expected to fall by 10 million bushels to 30 million due to corn's price competitiveness. The season-average farm price is forecast at $5.30 per bushel, down $1.20 from 2024/25.
- Oats: U.S. oats supplies are projected to decrease for 2025/26, with production expected to fall sharply due to reduced area and lower trend yields. Domestic feed and residual use is forecast to decline by 25 million bushels. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.10 per bushel, the lowest since 2020/21.
On the international front, the ERS forecasts record-high global coarse grain production for the 2025/26 marketing year. World corn production is set to grow by more than 3.5%, driven by larger harvests in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Global consumption of coarse grains is also forecast to rise, fueled by increased feed and residual use and growing demand for biofuels. Despite higher utilization, global ending stocks for coarse grains are projected to decline from 316.42 million metric tons to 305.34 million.
Key global trade shifts include projected increases in coarse grain imports for China (up 6.5 million metric tons) and corn imports for Canada and the European Union. Major exporters like Ukraine and Brazil are expected to see increased corn exports, while both the U.S. and Australia are projected to boost sorghum exports, with China being a key destination.
