The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its latest Crop Production report, revealing a mixed outlook for the nation's key agricultural commodities. While corn production is expected to decline slightly from last year, soybean and cotton producers are poised for significant increases.
Corn production is forecasted at 15.2 billion bushels for 2024, marking a 1% decrease from 2023. Despite this, the average U.S. corn yield is expected to reach a record 183.6 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from last month's forecast and 6.3 bushels higher than last year. Record-high yields are anticipated in several states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, New York, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Area planted to corn remains unchanged from previous estimates at 90.7 million acres but is down 4% compared to 2023. The area projected for harvest is 82.7 million acres, also unchanged from last month but 4% less than last year. As of September 1, 65% of the corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, a 12-percentage-point improvement over the same period last year.
Soybean growers are projected to increase production by 10% over 2023 levels, with an expected output of 4.59 billion bushels. The average yield is forecast at 53.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month's estimate but up 2.6 bushels from last year. If realized, this would result in record-high yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, New York, and Texas.
The area for soybean harvest is forecast at 86.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but 5% more than was harvested in 2023. The total planted area stands at 87.1 million acres, up 4% from last year and consistent with previous estimates.
Cotton production is forecast to rise by 20% from 2023, reaching 14.5 million 480-pound bales. The area expected to be harvested is 8.63 million acres, slightly higher than last month's forecast and 34% more than last season. However, the yield per harvested acre is expected to average 807 pounds, down 33 pounds from last month's forecast and 92 pounds less than in 2023.
The area planted to all cotton is estimated at 11.2 million acres, a 9% increase over last year and slightly up from previous estimates.
As part of its routine September analysis, NASS reviewed planted and harvested acreage estimates for corn, cotton, and soybeans using comprehensive data, including the latest certified acreage information from the Farm Service Agency (FSA). The reviews confirmed that planted areas for corn and soybeans remain unchanged from earlier estimates, while cotton saw a slight increase in planted acreage.
To compile the report, NASS surveyed over 6,900 producers across the country and conducted objective yield assessments for corn and soybeans. These surveys provide critical data that help inform farmers, agribusinesses, and policymakers as they make decisions for the upcoming agricultural year.
The anticipated decrease in corn production could impact feed prices and ethanol production, while the rise in soybean output may influence domestic supplies and export potential. The significant increase in cotton production suggests a rebound for the industry after a challenging previous season.
