The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Crop Production report on July 12, 2024, projecting significant increases in wheat production across various categories for the current year.
Winter Wheat Production
Winter wheat production is forecasted to reach 1.34 billion bushels, a 4% increase from the June 1 forecast and a 7% rise from 2023. As of July 1, the average U.S. yield is anticipated to be 52.0 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from the previous month and 1.4 bushels higher than last year's average of 50.6 bushels per acre.
- Hard Red Winter (HRW): Production is estimated at 763 million bushels, a 5% increase from the June forecast.
- Soft Red Winter (SRW): Expected to produce 344 million bushels, up slightly from June.
- White Winter Wheat: Production is forecasted at 234 million bushels, a 4% rise from last month. This includes 19.0 million bushels of Hard White and 215 million bushels of Soft White wheat.
Durum Wheat Production
Durum wheat production is forecasted to reach 89.3 million bushels, a significant 50% increase from 2023. Based on current conditions, yields are expected to average 42.7 bushels per harvested acre, an increase of 5.7 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested remains unchanged from the June 28 Acreage report, totaling 2.09 million acres, but marks a 30% increase from 2023.
Other Spring Wheat Production
Production of other spring wheat for grain is forecasted at 578 million bushels, a 14% increase from last year. Yields are expected to average 53.1 bushels per harvested acre, up 7.1 bushels from 2023. This yield, if realized, would be a record high for the United States. The area harvested for grain or seed is projected to total 10.9 million acres, unchanged from the June 28 Acreage report but 1% below 2023 levels.
- Hard Red Spring (HRS) Wheat: Production is estimated at 532 million bushels, a 14% increase from last year.
These forecasts indicate a robust year for U.S. wheat production, reflecting improvements in yield and harvested area. The USDA's ongoing efforts to monitor and report on crop conditions help provide valuable insights into the agricultural landscape, aiding farmers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders in making informed decisions.
