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USDA cuts production, yield forecasts in October WASDE

Latest report sets corn harvest at 15.065 billion bushels and soybean harvest at 4.104 billion bushels.

Tractor In Field Harvesting Soybeans Taylormariecasey13 Pixabay
taylormariecasey13 | Pixabay.com

On October 12, the USDA forecast a smaller corn and soybean harvest than previously projected in its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down less than 1% from the previous forecast but up 10% from last year; soybean growers are expected to decrease their production 4% from 2022, forecast at 4.10 billion bushels.

It estimated average yields at 173 bushels/acre for corn and 49.6 bushels/acre for soybeans.

According to reports, if Thursday's USDA projects bear out, the corn harvest would still be the third largest on record.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports and higher ending stocks.

Supplies are raised 85 million bushels, primarily on higher production as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary, released September 29. Domestic use is raised 30 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use.

The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 29 indicated a higher year-to-year increase for first quarter (June-August) domestic disappearance than previously expected. Exports remain at 700 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes.

Projected ending stocks are raised by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15% from last year.

  • The season average farm price is reduced $0.20/bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks. Supplies are reduced 3.5 million tons to 1,051.0 million as reduced production for Australia, Kazakhstan and Ethiopia is only partially offset by higher production for the U.S. Australia is lowered 1.5 million tons to 24.5 million on continued dry conditions over most of the production regions. Kazakhstan is reduced 2.0 million tons to 13.0 million on suboptimal growing conditions this season. Ethiopia is also lowered 2.0 million tons to 5.5 million on reduced harvested area, dry conditions in August and September, and less input use.

Global consumption is reduced 3.0 million tons to 792.9 million, mainly on lower feed and residual use for Russia and Kazakhstan while most of the food, seed and industrial use reductions are for Ethiopia and Nigeria.

World trade is decreased 1.1 million tons to 206.3 million on reduced exports by Australia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan only partially offset by higher Russian exports. Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million tons to 258.1 million, the lowest since 2015/16. 

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks.

Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre.

Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks.

Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply.

With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2023/24 are lowered 110 million bushels.

  • The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $4.95/bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast down 2.0 million tons to 1,494.6 million. The 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for slightly higher production, larger trade, and greater stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher on increases for Argentina, Moldova, the EU and Paraguay. Argentina corn production is raised reflecting higher expected area. The EU is higher on an increase for France. Foreign barley production is cut based on reductions for Australia and Kazakhstan that are partly offset by an increase for the EU.     

Major global trade changes include larger corn exports for Argentina and Paraguay but a reduction for the United States. Corn imports are lowered for Bangladesh. Barley exports are raised for Russia but reduced for Australia. Barley imports are higher for Iran and Kazakhstan. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine and Moldova.

Global corn stocks, at 312.4 million tons, are down 1.6 million.    

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is forecast at 120.9 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month with lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed and sunflowerseed production.

Soybean production is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 82.8 million acres.

The soybean yield is projected at 49.6 bushels/acre, down 0.5 bushels from the September forecast. The largest production changes are for Kansas, Michigan and Nebraska. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 24 million bushels.

Soybean exports are reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion with increased competition from South America.

Soybean crush is projected at 2.3 billion bushels, up 10 million, driven by higher soybean meal exports and soybean oil domestic demand. Soybean oil domestic use is raised in line with an increase for 2022/23.

With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 220 million bushels.

  • The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is unchanged at $12.90/bushel.
  • Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380/short ton and 63 cents/pound, respectively.

Foreign 2023/24 oilseed production is lowered 0.2 million tons to 538.5 million mainly on lower soybean and peanut output for India and lower canola production for Canada. Partly offsetting is higher rapeseed production for Poland and higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina. India soybean production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 11.0 million, as near-record rains in September along with the historically dry conditions in August negatively impacted yields.    

Global 2023/24 soybean exports are lowered 0.2 million tons to 168.2 million with lower exports for the U.S. partly offset by higher shipments for Brazil. Soybean imports are lowered for Pakistan.

Global soybean crush is increased 0.8 million tons to 328.5 million on higher crush for China and the U.S. China’s crush is raised 1.0 million tons to 97.0 million in line with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year. Partly offsetting is  lower crush for India and Pakistan on lower supplies.

Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 3.6 million tons to 115.6 million mainly on lower stocks for China, Brazil and India.    

Read the full October WASDE here.

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