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Report: More corn, soybean acres expected in 2023

Producers intend to plant 92 million acres of corn in 2023, up 4% from last year.

2 Lisa Selfie December 2020 Headshot

Producers surveyed across the U.S. intend to plant 92 million acres of corn in 2023, up 4% from last year, according to the Prospective Plantings report released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Planted acreage intentions for corn are up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating states. The largest increase is expected in North Dakota, where producers intend to plant 800,000 more acres than in 2022. If realized, the planted area of corn in Arizona and Idaho will be the largest on record.

Soybean growers intend to plant 87.5 million acres in 2023, up slightly from last year. Acreage increases from last year of 100,000 or more are expected in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Record high acreage is expected in Illinois, Nebraska, New York, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Wheat planting will be up 9% from 2022

The Prospective Plantings report provides the first official, survey-based estimates of U.S. farmers’ 2023 planting intentions.

NASS’s acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March from a sample of nearly 73,000 farm operators across the nation. Other key findings in the report are:

  • All wheat planted area for 2023 is estimated at 49.9 million acres, up 9% from 2022.
  • Winter wheat planted area, at 37.5 million acres, is up 2% from the previous estimate and up 13% from last year.
  • Area planted to other spring wheat for 2023 is expected to total 10.6 million acres, down 2% from 2022.
  • Durum wheat is expected to total 1.78 million acres for 2023, up 9% from last year.
  • All cotton planted area for 2023 is expected to total 11.3 million acres, 18% below last year.

Grain stocks insight also released

NASS also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report to provide estimates of on-farm and off-farm stocks as of March 1. Key findings in that report include :

  • Corn stocks totaled 7.40 billion bushels, down 5% from the same time last year. On-farm corn stocks were up 1% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were down 10%.
  • Soybeans stored totaled 1.69 billion bushels, down 13% from March 1, 2022. On-farm soybean stocks were down slightly from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were down 21%.
  • All wheat stored totaled 946 million bushels, down 8% from a year ago. On-farm all wheat stocks went up 30% from last year, while off-farm stocks went down 16%.
  • Durum wheat stored totaled 35.8 million bushels, up 18% from March 1, 2022. On-farm Durum stocks were up 36% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks of Durum wheat were up 6%.

Soybeans double digits higher after reports

According to Alan Brugler at Barchart, the favorable USDA data took soybeans "to new highs for the day."

"Old crop prices are trading more than 20 cents in the black so far, with new crop 11 to 23 cents higher at midday," said Brugler. "Meal prices are also in the black with $3.40 to $4.80 gains so far. Soybean oil futures are up by triple digits at midday.

USDA’s NASS counted 1.685 bbu of soybeans for March 1, which was tighter than the average trade guess, but within the range of estimates, said Brugler.

"Compared to last year, stocks were 246.4 mbu tighter," he said. Implied second quarter demand was 1.336 bbu, compared to 1.205 bbu last year and the implied estimate for 1.294 bbu.

Analysts surveyed expect USDA will confirm a 175.7 mbu soy crush for February in the April 3 report. The NOPA crush report had February at 165.41 mbu.

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