The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s November 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report highlights notable shifts in global and U.S. agricultural markets, driven by record yields, changing production forecasts, and evolving trade flows. The report, released November 14, projects larger wheat supplies, mixed coarse grain outlooks, and steady livestock production amid ongoing market uncertainties. Due to the government shutdown from October 1 through November 12, some U.S. data sources that are typically used were not available for the November 2025 WASDE. Changes to the U.S. balance sheets continue to reflect all U.S. government data available at the time of publication.
Wheat outlook improves on record yields
U.S. wheat supplies for the 2025/26 marketing year are raised, reflecting a record all-wheat yield of 53.3 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from September. Production is forecast at nearly 1.99 billion bushels, 58 million bushels higher than previous estimates. Despite no change in use, ending stocks climb to 901 million bushels, the highest since 2019/20. The season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents to $5.00 per bushel due to larger global supplies.
Globally, wheat production is up 11.7 million tons to 1.09 billion tons, with gains across major exporters including Kazakhstan, Argentina, the European Union, Australia, Russia, and Canada. Increased feed and residual use in Russia, Kazakhstan, and the EU contribute to a 4.3 million ton rise in global consumption. World trade expands by 2.5 million tons, driven by Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan, while ending stocks rise 7.4 million tons to 271.4 million.
Coarse grains show mixed signals
The U.S. corn outlook for 2025/26 projects higher supplies, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks rise 207 million bushels, partially offsetting a 62 million bushel production decline to 16.75 billion bushels. Exports increase 100 million bushels to a record 3.075 billion, supported by strong shipments in September and October. Ending stocks climb 44 million bushels to 2.15 billion. The season-average corn price is raised 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel.
Globally, coarse grain production is forecast 3.2 million tons higher at 1.58 billion tons, with increased corn production in Mexico and the EU offsetting declines in Egypt. Barley production rises in the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine but falls in the U.K. Global corn ending stocks dip slightly to 281.3 million tons due to lower stocks in China, partly offset by gains in Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine.
Rice supplies tighten amid lower U.S. production
U.S. rice supplies decrease slightly due to a 1.5 million hundredweight cut in production, driven by a lower yield forecast of 7,506 pounds per acre. Ending stocks drop 1.5 million hundredweight to 51.9 million, down 4% from the previous year. The season-average farm price falls 50 cents to $12.70 per hundredweight.
Globally, rice supplies are marginally lower, with production cuts in Pakistan and Senegal offsetting gains in the Philippines and Egypt. Consumption edges up to a record 542.4 million tons, while trade rises 0.8 million tons. Ending stocks decline 0.5 million tons to 186.7 million.
Oilseeds and products reflect lower U.S. soybean output
U.S. oilseed production falls 1 million tons to 125.8 million, mainly due to a 48 million bushel drop in soybean production caused by lower yields. Soybean exports decrease 50 million bushels to 1.64 billion amid increased competition from Brazil and Argentina. The season-average soybean price rises 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel, while soybean meal prices increase $20 to $300 per short ton.
Globally, soybean production declines 4.1 million tons, with reductions in the U.S., Ukraine, and India. Sunflowerseed production falls 1 million tons, mainly due to lower output in Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Turkey, partially offset by higher production in Argentina. Rapeseed production rises 1.3 million tons on gains in the EU, Australia, Ukraine, and the UK.
Sugar production and stocks decrease slightly
U.S. sugar production for 2025/26 is projected at 9.319 million short tons raw value, down from prior estimates. Beet sugar production is forecast at 5.211 million short tons, with cane sugar at 4.108 million. Imports are increased slightly to 2.313 million short tons. Ending stocks are lowered to 1.845 million short tons, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.03%.
Mexico’s sugar production is projected at 5.019 million metric tons, down due to rain and flooding delaying harvest and reducing yields. Mexico’s government raised tariffs to control imports, though U.S. imports are exempt.
Livestock and poultry forecasts steady with some adjustments
The 2025 red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered slightly due to reduced beef, pork, and turkey output, partially offset by higher broiler production. Beef production declines with reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower weights, while pork production falls due to slower slaughter pace. Broiler production is raised based on recent data. Turkey production is lowered due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling. Egg production is also reduced.
For 2026, beef and pork production forecasts are lowered, broiler production is raised, and turkey production is reduced in early quarters due to HPAI impacts. Milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised, supported by higher cow inventories and productivity.
Prices for cattle, hogs, broilers, turkey, eggs, and milk are adjusted to reflect recent market data, with mixed trends including lower cattle and broiler prices and higher turkey prices.
