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2019 Corn Yield Could Be Lowest Since 2012

New AccuWeather analysis estimates 13.03B bushels of corn

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AccuWeather predicts the 2019 U.S. yield for corn will be the lowest since 2012. A new AccuWeather analysis estimates there will be 13.03 billion bushels of corn, based on 167 bushels per acre on 78 million acres harvested.

On the positive side, “It’s a little bit of a blessing for the farmers who did plant since they might get a higher price for whatever they harvest,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

“The ones who were able to plant will do alright because they’re happy to see the price of corn go up,” Nicholls said. “It’s possible by the end of the summer that instead of the corn being priced at $4.30 or $4.40 as it is now, it might be closer to $5. I think it’s going to be good for those farmers.”

Continued rain and flooding so far have marred the 2019 growing season, with many farmers forced to plant corn far later than usual. That has also affected initial estimates of the condition of the corn, with historically low estimates of “good” or “excellent” the last three weeks of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Crop Progress.

The percentage of corn considered “good” or “excellent” in 18 key corn-producing states has been at 56% the past two weeks. In 2018, that estimate was at 76%.

States with particularly low ratings last week include Missouri (29%), Ohio (31%) and Indiana (39%).

AccuWeather’s predicted yield would be the lowest since 2012 when 10.76 billion bushels of corn were produced. In 2018, the total was 14.42 billion bushels.

The USDA’s 2019 corn production estimate as of June 28 is higher, at 13.88 billion, based on 166 billion bushels per acre on 83.6 million acres harvested.

“I guess they’re being conservative and are not sure of the acres that have or haven’t been planted,” said Nicholls.

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