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International Grains Council Lowers Global Output

Corn output is projected to decline by 6M tonnes in U.S., China and EU

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The outlook for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is lowered by 3 million tonnes month-on-month (m/m), to 2,227 million, with a cut for corn partly offset by increases for barley and oats.

A 6 million tonne downward adjustment for corn output includes reductions for the U.S., China and the EU, but increases for Argentina and Brazil. The figure for the world wheat outturn is little-changed m/m, with higher figures for Russia and Australia balanced by cuts for Argentina and Canada. Global consumption is placed 2 million tonne lower m/m, mainly owing to a downgrade for U.S. industrial use of corn.

The projection for world grains stocks is down by 1 million tonne m/m, as a reduced forecast for U.S. corn inventories (-3m t) is nearly offset by small increases for other grains. With upward revisions for wheat, corn and barley, the projection for total grains trade in 2020/21 (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 3 million tonnnes m/m, to a record 398 million, an increase of 1% y/y (year-on-year).

With data showing heavier than anticipated shipments in recent weeks, IGC’s figure for world soyabean trade in 2019/20 is raised by 1million tonne, to a record of 164m, some 8% higher y/y. Fractional adjustments for carry-in stocks and production -– seen rebounding to a new peak -– result in a reduced projection for total supplies and carryovers in 2020/21. However, at 50 million tonne, stocks would still be slightly larger y/y. The outlook for world import demand is raised slightly, to a record of 165m t, a 1% y/y gain.

Largely reflecting a higher figure for consumption, world rice ending stocks in 2019/20 are forecast 2 million tonnes lower m/m, at 175m, broadly steady y/y. The outlook for global production in 2020/21 is trimmed m/m and, together with a reduced figure for carry-ins, the overall decrease in supplies is channelled to a lower projection for carryovers, placed at 180 million tonnes (+5m y/y). Trade in 2021 is seen little-changed from previously, at 45 million tonnes, a 7% y/y increase.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rallied by 9% m/m, with solid gains for all the components other than rice.

To read the full Grain Market Report, visit IGC here.

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