In its September 2024 Feed Outlook, the USDA reports that U.S. corn and sorghum production forecasts have increased, despite a global decline in coarse grain output. The rise in U.S. yields is driven by ideal weather conditions in key regions, while global production is hampered by drought and heat waves, particularly in Europe and sub-Saharan Africa.
Slight increase in corn and sorghum yields
U.S. corn yields are forecast to average 183.6 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from last month, bringing total production to 15.2 billion bushels. The 2024/25 corn supply is down slightly due to a reduction in beginning stocks, but overall output remains strong. Corn prices are reduced to $4.10 per bushel due to a projected supply increase and strong fourth-quarter demand from 2023/24.
Sorghum production is expected to rise by 23 million bushels, with a forecast output of 302 million bushels for 2024/25. With this increased supply, U.S. sorghum exports are expected to climb to 220 million bushels, and prices have also been lowered to $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain output drops
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to decline by 1.8 million tons, driven by reductions in corn, barley, oats, and rye output, particularly in Europe, Russia, and sub-Saharan Africa. A significant 1.5-million-ton reduction in corn production is expected in the European Union, primarily in Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria, due to extreme heat and drought conditions.
Corn yields in Russia and Ghana are also down, with Ghana declaring a national food crisis due to crop failures. Russia's 2024/25 corn output is projected to be 19% lower than last year, following the hottest corn-growing season on record in southwestern Russia.
Positive developments in Australia and Canada
On the other hand, Australia’s barley and sorghum production forecasts have been revised upward due to favorable growing conditions. Canada’s corn production is also expected to rise, bolstered by increased precipitation and mild temperatures in major corn-growing provinces like Ontario and Quebec.
Global coarse grain trade
Global coarse grain trade for 2024/25 is projected to rise slightly, driven by increases in sorghum and barley trade, offsetting declines in corn and oats. Corn use for ethanol in Brazil is expected to increase as additional plants come online, while corn imports in Mexico and India are forecast to rise due to strong domestic demand for food, feed, and ethanol production.
Despite these challenges, global demand for coarse grains remains robust, with stocks expected to tighten as supply struggles to keep pace with consumption. The USDA's next report is set to be released on October 16, 2024.
