The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service released its September 2024 outlook, highlighting key trends in rice, wheat, and soybean production.
Rice production and imports
U.S. rice imports for the 2024/25 season are forecast at a record 46.5 million hundredweight (cwt), up 1.0 million from last month’s estimate. The carryin supply is also up by 1.0 million cwt, now projected at 39.4 million cwt—30% higher than last year. However, domestic production has been revised down slightly to 219.75 million cwt, marginally above 2023 levels.
On the demand side, domestic rice usage is forecast at a record 159.0 million cwt, while total exports remain unchanged at 101.0 million cwt, with a shift toward milled rice exports over rough rice. As a result, ending stocks are now projected at 45.6 million cwt, 16% higher than a year earlier.
Global rice outlook
Globally, rice production is projected to hit a record 527.3 million tons, though slightly lower than earlier forecasts. Production reductions in countries like Australia, Bangladesh, and Turkey are offset by gains in India. Global rice trade is expected to decline, with imports lowered for countries such as Madagascar and Senegal, but increased for Cuba and the United States.
Wheat production in the U.S. and Europe
Wheat production in the U.S. remains unchanged at 1.982 billion bushels, a 9% increase from last year. Exports are expected to grow year-over-year, aided by reduced competition from Russia and Ukraine. However, the European Union’s wheat production forecast has been slashed to a six-year low of 124 million metric tons (MMT), driven by adverse weather conditions in major producing countries like France and Germany. EU wheat exports are projected to drop 17%, with tight ending stocks of 9.9 MMT.
Soybean production and demand
U.S. soybean production for the 2024/25 season is forecast at a record 4.6 billion bushels, though marginally lower than last month’s estimate. The crop is expected to yield 53.2 bushels per acre, supported by favorable summer weather in the Midwest. Soybean crops are maturing rapidly, with harvesting well underway in southern states like Louisiana and Mississippi.
With a slightly reduced supply, U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 550 million bushels, 10 million bushels lower than previous estimates. Soybean oil production is also expected to rise, driven by an increase in crush and extraction rates, with soybean oil used for biofuel reaching near-record levels.
These revisions reflect a mixed outlook for U.S. agricultural markets, with rice imports surging, EU wheat production suffering from poor weather, and U.S. soybean production holding steady amid strong demand for biofuels.
