Bulk ocean freight rates for shipping U.S. grain from the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) to major markets increased in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, reflecting evolving global trade dynamics. However, rates remain lower than those recorded in the same period last year and below the four-year average, according to the November 27, 2025 Grain Transportation Report from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service.
Shipping grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan averaged $54.36 per metric ton (mt) in the third quarter, up 17 percent from the second quarter but down 6 percent year over year and 15 percent below the four-year average. From the PNW to Japan, rates averaged $29.08 per mt, rising 7 percent quarter to quarter but down 6 percent from the previous year and 17 percent below the four-year average. Rates from the Gulf to Europe averaged $24.56 per mt, up 8 percent quarter to quarter but down 7 percent year over year and 13 percent below the four-year average.
Several factors influenced these rate fluctuations. In July and August, strong Chinese imports of iron ore and coal supported elevated ocean freight demand, as steel mills stocked up ahead of seasonal peaks. September saw further rate increases driven by vessel demand before China’s National Day holiday and drought-induced low water levels on Argentina’s Paraná River, which limited grain shipments and increased costs.
Despite recent increases, ocean freight rates remain moderate due to ample vessel capacity. The global dry bulk fleet expanded by 3 percent year over year, with active vessels rising to their highest level since mid-2024. This capacity helps temper rate hikes in the short term.
Looking ahead, freight rate trends remain uncertain. The recent U.S.-China trade agreement, which suspended retaliatory tariffs on Chinese vessels, has led to renewed soybean export sales to China, potentially increasing demand for Panamax vessels and pushing rates higher.
For the week ending November 20, rates to ship grain from the Gulf to Japan reached $57 per mt, 25 percent higher than early 2025 levels and 18 percent above the same period last year. PNW to Japan rates were $29.75 per mt, up 12 percent from early 2025 and 3 percent from last year.
These developments underscore the complex interplay of global trade, weather, and supply factors shaping grain transportation costs as the marketing year progresses.
