Ocean freight rates for shipping bulk grain remained steady in the second quarter of 2025 but showed significant decreases compared to the same period last year, according to data released Thursday in the USDA’s Grain Transportation Report.
Rates for shipping wheat, corn and soybeans from the U.S. Gulf to Japan averaged $46.42 per metric ton in the second quarter, unchanged from the first quarter but down 24% from the second quarter of 2024 and 28% below the four-year average.
Similar trends were observed in other major shipping routes. Pacific Northwest to Japan rates averaged $27.12 per metric ton, up 1% from the previous quarter but down 17% year-over-year and 25% below the four-year average. Rates from the U.S. Gulf to Europe averaged $22.71, up 1% quarter-to-quarter but down 19% from both last year and the four-year average.
“The opposing trends of China’s strong iron ore imports and weak coal imports kept ocean freight rates relatively stable in the second quarter,” the report noted, highlighting China’s role as the key driver in the bulk shipping market.
Monthly fluctuations within the quarter reflected changing patterns in Chinese imports. April saw slight declines in rates due to drops in China’s U.S. soybean and coal imports, despite upward pressure from increased iron ore imports. May rates remained mostly flat during China’s Labor Day holiday period amid continued weakness in coal imports and a temporary dip in iron ore shipments.
Recent weeks have shown an upward trend in rates, with the July 24 rate for shipping grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan reaching $54.50 per metric ton—19% higher than rates at the beginning of 2025, though still 9% below the same period in 2024.
The report indicates this recent increase reflects “improved iron ore demand and robust grain shipments,” with vessel activity in the U.S. Gulf increasing significantly in July compared to previous months.
Looking ahead, the report suggests several factors could influence rates, including Brazil’s strong second harvest, which is projected to rise 11% from the previous marketing year and could increase demand for shipping capacity.
Global dry bulk fleet capacity increased 3% year-over-year, but new vessel orders have declined sharply due to regulatory uncertainty and concerns about a potential U.S. proposal to impose fees on Chinese-built vessels.
“Until then, the slowdown in new vessel orders could constrain the growth of vessel fleets and, in turn, push up ocean freight rates,” the report concluded.
