The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest Grain Transportation Report reveals significant shifts in soybean export costs and volumes for the first quarter of 2025, with the United States facing increased expenses while Brazil experiences a decline.
According to the report released May 29, U.S. soybean landed costs rose for most export routes, primarily due to higher transportation costs. The increase was attributed to rising truck rates and the diversion of grain movements from barge to rail through the upper Mississippi River, which was partially impassable due to ice.
In contrast, Brazil saw a decrease in landed costs, mainly because of lower farm values. The report highlights that transportation's share of Brazil's total landed costs ranged from 21-27 percent for shipments to both China and Germany.
The competitive landscape for soybean exports showed notable changes:
- U.S. soybean exports to China in the first quarter of 2025 fell sharply to 5.2 million metric tons (mmt), down 41 percent from the same period in 2024.
- Total U.S. soybean exports through the Gulf ports declined by 49 percent to 7.9 mmt compared to the previous quarter.
- Pacific Northwest exports saw an even steeper drop, falling 80 percent to 1.6 mmt.
Looking ahead, the USDA projects U.S. soybean exports for the 2025/26 marketing year at 49.4 mmt, down from 50.4 mmt in the previous year. Meanwhile, Brazil is expected to increase its exports to 112.0 mmt, up from 104.5 mmt.
The report underscores the impact of transportation costs on global competitiveness, with U.S. exporters facing challenges from weather-related disruptions and higher fuel prices. As Brazil's costs decrease, the shifting dynamics in the global soybean market could have significant implications for trade patterns and pricing in the coming months.
Industry analysts suggest that continued monitoring of transportation infrastructure and costs will be crucial for maintaining U.S. competitiveness in the global soybean market.
