U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico have surged 65% since 2020, positioning the country to surpass Canada as the largest international market for American food and farm products in 2025, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.
Driven by a post-pandemic economic rebound and rapid growth in Mexico’s manufacturing sector, demand for U.S. meat, dairy, processed foods and feed grains has expanded significantly. In 2024, U.S. ag exports to Mexico reached $31.4 billion — just shy of the $32.4 billion sent to Canada.
“The rise of Mexico as a customer has been a huge success story for U.S. agriculture,” said Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “But a few risk factors are developing that could slow the pace of additional growth. Mexico’s economy has been slowing, and the unusually strong peso over the last couple of years has weakened by about 15% since early 2024. Mexican consumers’ purchasing power will be more challenged in 2025.”
Since 2020, Mexico’s share of total U.S. ag exports has grown from 11.2% to 16.4%, according to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data. The top five U.S. commodities by volume shipped to Mexico include corn, pork, dairy products, soybeans and poultry.
Grain, feed, oilseeds and related products make up the largest export category to Mexico, totaling $13.9 billion last year. CoBank attributes much of that growth to increased feed demand for Mexico’s expanding animal protein industry and to severe drought conditions limiting domestic crop production and grazing.
With ongoing trade tensions continuing to impact U.S.-China agricultural trade, Mexico is poised to overtake China as the top export market for U.S. grain, feed and oilseeds as early as next year.
Dairy exports to Mexico have climbed 76% in value since 2020, led by surging cheese demand. Mexico is now the top buyer of U.S. dairy products — nearly twice the size of China, the second-largest market. Although Mexico is growing its own domestic meat and poultry sectors, strong consumer demand has kept U.S. export volumes rising.
Cross-border ag trade between the U.S. and Mexico has doubled over the past decade to reach $80 billion. Despite shifting political sentiments toward trade policy, Fox said the U.S.-Mexico food trade relationship remains a clear “win-win” for both sides, as consumers on both sides benefit from wider food selections at lower prices.
