The United States Department of Agriculture's November 2024 World Agricultural Production report paints a complex picture of global grain markets, with significant changes in key producing countries. Kazakhstan emerges as a bright spot with a 49% increase in wheat production, while Russia sees an 11% decline. Meanwhile, Brazil is on track for a record soybean harvest, and India achieves unprecedented rice production despite early-season challenges.
The report highlights the increasing impact of climate variability on global crop production:
Kazakhstan Wheat:
- Production estimated at 18.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 13% from last month and 49% from last year.
- Yield estimated at 1.38 tons per hectare, up 12% from last month and 50% from last year.
- Harvested area remains at 13.0 million hectares, down 1% from last year.
- Abundant precipitation led to the second-highest yield on record.
- Wetter-than-average conditions and cooler temperatures boosted harvest but hampered grain quality.
Russia Wheat:
- Production estimated at 81.5 mmt, down slightly from last month and 11% from last year.
- Includes 57.5 mmt of winter wheat and 24.0 mmt of spring wheat.
- Yield estimated at 2.91 tons per hectare, down slightly from last month and 8% from last year.
- Harvested area at 28.0 million hectares, down 3% from last year.
- Harvest is about 98% complete as of October 29, 2024.
Argentina Wheat:
- Production forecast at 17.5 mmt, down 3% from last month but up 10% from last year.
- Yield forecast at 2.92 tons per hectare, down 3% from last month but up 3% from last year.
- Below-average rainfall in key producing regions during critical flowering periods.
- Warmer-than-usual temperatures in September and October negatively impacted yield.
Brazil Soybeans:
- Production forecast remains at a record 169.0 mmt, up 10% from last year and 18% above the 5-year average.
- Harvested area forecast at a record 47.3 million hectares, up 3% from last year.
- Yield forecast at 3.57 tons per hectare, up 7% from last year.
- Planting accelerated in October after initial delays due to dry conditions in September.
Turkey Sunflowerseed:
- Production estimated at 1.4 mmt, down 11% from last month and last year, and 19% below the 5-year average.
- Yield estimated at 1.99 tons per hectare, down from 2.25 t/ha last month and 2.21 t/ha last year.
- Drier and hotter-than-normal weather in northwestern areas significantly impacted yields.
India Rice:
- Production estimated at a record 145.0 mmt (milled basis), up 2% from last month and 5% from last year.
- Record harvested area of 50.0 million hectares, up 5% from last year.
- Record yield of 4.35 tons per hectare (rough basis).
- Farmers shifted from cotton to rice due to higher yield potential and lower risk.
Mexico Corn:
- Production estimated at 24.5 mmt, down 2% from last month but up 4% from last year's drought-affected crop.
- Harvested area estimated at 6.3 million hectares, down 2% from last month.
- Yield estimated at 3.89 tons per hectare, slightly down from last month.
- Low reservoir levels in Sinaloa threaten the winter corn crop, which accounts for 30% of annual production.
Spain Cotton:
- Production estimated at 195,000 480-pound bales, down 5% from last month but up significantly from last year's drought-stricken crop.
- Harvested area estimated at 48,000 hectares, down 4% from last month and 8% from last year.
- Recent pest infestations and severe flooding in late October may impact final yield and quality.
These developments underscore the delicate balance of global food production and the growing influence of weather patterns on agricultural output. As climate change continues to alter traditional growing conditions, adaptability and resilience in farming practices become increasingly crucial for maintaining global food security.
