In a development for the global grain market, the United States has exported a record 24.5 million tons of corn to Mexico in the 2023/24 season, according to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service. This unprecedented volume, accounting for over 40% of total U.S. corn exports, marks a significant shift in North American agricultural trade dynamics.
Key highlights
U.S. corn exports to Mexico reached 24.5 million tons, up from 16.8 million two years prior
U.S. market share in Mexico hit 99%, the highest in nearly a decade
Drought in Mexico contrasted with a record U.S. harvest, driving the trade surge
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) facilitated advantageous trade conditions
The report also touches on other critical developments in the global grain market:
Wheat market adjustments
Global wheat production has seen an upward adjustment, with Kazakhstan's significant increase outweighing reductions in Argentina, Brazil, and Russia. Key points include:
Global consumption reached a record high, driven by increased feed and residual use in Kazakhstan
Global trade decreased due to reduced exports from Turkey and Argentina, coupled with fewer imports by China, Kazakhstan, and Turkey
The U.S. season-average farm price for wheat dropped 10 cents to $5.60 per bushel
Domestic U.S. wheat quotes mostly declined, with Hard Red Winter dropping $15/ton to $262 and Soft Red Winter falling $8/ton to $258
Global exporter quotes declined, with Argentine quotes now on par with Russia as the most competitive
Rice market dynamics
The global rice market is experiencing significant shifts, with production and trade reaching new heights:
Global rice production is forecast to increase, primarily due to a substantial rise in India
Exports are projected to hit a record high, with increases in India, Thailand, and Vietnam
Imports are up, particularly in Bangladesh, Vietnam, and the Philippines
Global consumption is rising, notably in Guinea and India
India's lifting of its export ban on non-basmati white rice has led to a significant decline in global export quotes
Vietnam's quotes decreased $17 to $517/ton, while Thailand's fell $19 to $498/ton
Coarse grains outlook
The coarse grains market, particularly corn, is showing mixed trends globally:
Global corn production is forecast up, with increases in Uganda, Malawi, Mozambique, and Belarus offsetting cuts in the United States, Mexico, and Turkey
Global trade is slightly down, with Brazil's export reduction outweighing increases from Argentina and Burma
Imports decreased marginally, with increases in Mexico, Vietnam, and the Philippines offset by reductions in China and Malawi
The U.S. season-average farm price for corn remains unchanged at $4.10 per bushel
Export bids have decreased for most major origins except Brazil, reflecting seasonal pressure from Northern Hemisphere harvests
These developments underscore the interconnected nature of global agricultural markets and the impact of climate events, trade policies, and regional production variations on food security and international commerce. The shifting dynamics in wheat, rice, and coarse grains markets, alongside the record corn trade between the U.S. and Mexico, highlight the complex and ever-changing landscape of global agriculture.
