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USDA lowers global coarse grains production forecast

This adjustment is mainly due to reduced global barley output, which somewhat overshadows an increase in corn production.

Wisconsin Corn Feild

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service has released the June 2024 Feed Outlook, reporting a reduction in the global coarse grains production forecast for marketing year (MY) 2024/25. The forecast has been lowered by 1.4 million metric tons to 1,511.2 million metric tons, primarily due to a decreased barley output, which is only partially offset by higher global corn production.

U.S. corn production and supply

The U.S. corn production forecast for MY 2024/25 remains unchanged at 16,907 million bushels, with a yield projection of 181 bushels per acre. Despite variable weather conditions, 95% of the U.S. corn crop was planted by June 9, on par with the 5-year average. The current crop conditions are favorable, with 74% rated as good to excellent, 13 percentage points higher than last year.

Corn exports and domestic use

U.S. corn export estimates for MY 2023/24 remain at 2,150 million bushels, supported by year-to-date exports and sales activity. Domestic corn use for food, seed, and industrial purposes, including ethanol production, is also unchanged. Ethanol production is estimated at 5,450 million bushels for MY 2023/24 and expected to remain robust in MY 2024/25.

Sorghum and barley production

U.S. sorghum plantings are progressing well, with 65% of the crop planted by June 9, ahead of the 5-year average. Improved drought conditions have positively impacted planting progress, though some drought persists in key sorghum-producing states like Kansas.

Barley planting for MY 2024/25 has been boosted by favorable weather, with 98% of the intended acreage planted by June 10. The 2024/25 barley yield forecast remains at 76.7 bushels per acre, up 6% from the previous year. Barley exports for MY 2023/24 have been revised upward to 4.5 million bushels, reflecting an increase in export pace.

Global outlook

The global coarse grains trade forecast for MY 2024/25 is higher this month, driven by increased global corn export volumes despite reductions in global barley trade. The EU and Australia are expected to produce less rapeseed, with forecasts lowered by 0.3 million metric tons and 1.0 million metric tons, respectively. This reduction in rapeseed production is anticipated to lead to lower global rapeseed crush and ending stocks.

In Brazil, continued rains in Rio Grande do Sul have disrupted the soybean harvest for MY 2023/24, leading to a reduction in production to 153.0 million metric tons. Meanwhile, India’s rice production for MY 2023/24 is forecast to increase to 137.0 million metric tons, up 2% from last month.

The USDA's June 2024 Feed Outlook highlights the challenges and adjustments in global agricultural production due to variable weather conditions and market dynamics. While U.S. corn production remains steady, changes in global coarse grains production and trade reflect the ongoing complexities in the agricultural sector.

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