The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
WHEAT: U.S. 2020/21 wheat supplies are up on a larger crop and a slight increase in beginning stocks. The change in beginning stocks reflects a 5-million-bushel reduction in 2019/20 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 11 million bushels to 1,266 million with increases in Hard Red Winter and White Winter more than offsetting small decrease for Soft Red Winter. Total 2020/21 wheat production is now forecast at 1,877 million bushels, and total supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million.
Domestic use and exports for the new marketing year are unchanged this month, and ending stocks are raised 16 million bushels to 925 million, which is a 6-year low. World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. India production is raised 4.2 million tons, and Australia is up 2.0 million, both on updated government statistics. India’s crop is projected to be record-large, and Australia’s crop is expected to rebound on improved conditions following two consecutive years of drought. Turkey and China are both increased by 1.0 million tons. Partly offsetting these changes are crop reductions of 2.0 million tons for the EU and 1.5 million for Ukraine, both reflecting dry conditions during key parts of the growing season.
Projected 2020/21 global exports are raised 0.9 million tons to 188.9 million, led by a 2.0- million-ton increase for Australia on larger supplies, and a 1.0-million increase for Russia on reduced export competition from Ukraine. Exports are lowered 1.5 million tons for Ukraine and 0.5 million for the EU, both on smaller crops. With increased supplies, and global use lowered fractionally, world ending stocks are raised 6.0 million tons to a record-high 316.1 million, with China and India accounting for 51 percent and 10 percent of the total, respectively.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with fractional increases to beginning and ending stocks.
Beginning stocks are raised, as a 45-million-bushel reduction in estimated production for 2019/20 is largely offset by a 50-million-bushel reduction in projected corn used for ethanol. Corn used for ethanol is lowered reflecting a slower-than-expected rebound in ethanol production as indicated by Energy Information Administration data during the month of May and into early June.
For 2020/21, with supply up slightly and no changes to projected use, ending stocks are 5 million bushels higher at 3.3 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 per bushel. The global coarse grain production forecast for 2020/21 is raised 3.2 million tons to 1,484.6 million.
This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased use, and lower stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is raised based on higher expected area. Barley production is raised for the EU, based mostly on a forecast increase for the United Kingdom that is partly offset by a reduction for France.
Barley production is raised for Australia, but lowered for Ukraine, India, and Russia. For 2019/20, Brazil corn WASDE-601-2 production is unchanged, as higher indicated area is offset by a reduction in yield. Yield prospects for much of the Center-West are generally favorable in contrast to the South where conditions have been poor. Major global trade changes for 2020/21 include a larger corn export forecast for Zambia, with increases in corn imports for Thailand and Honduras.
Barley exports are lowered for Australia, based on a reduction in projected imports for China. For 2019/20, corn exports are raised for Argentina but lowered for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2020 based on observed data through early June. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Argentina, South Africa, and Paraguay that more than offset increases for Brazil and India.
OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2020/21 include higher beginning stocks, higher crush, and slightly lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 5 million bushels with higher crush for 2019/20 more-than-offset with lower production and a lower export forecast.
Lower 2019 production reflects the latest re-survey by NASS for North Dakota. The 2019/20 soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels WASDE-601-3 reflecting increased domestic soybean meal use. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels on increased competition from South America. Increased beginning stocks for 2020/21 are more than offset with a higher soybean crush forecast, which is raised along with increased domestic soybean meal use.
With higher soybean crush more than offsetting higher beginning stocks, 2020/21 ending stocks are projected at 395 million bushels. The 2020/21 season-average soybean and product price forecasts are unchanged this month. The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include slightly higher production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Higher peanut, soybean, and sunflowerseed production is partly offset by lower cottonseed output.
A notable revision to production is for EU canola, lowered 0.2 million tons to 16.8 million, based largely on lower yields for Germany. The EU revision is offset by higher Australian canola production. The 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 96.3 million, mainly reflecting lower carryin due to revisions to 2019/20 balance sheets.
For 2019/20, soybean exports are increased 1 million tons each for Argentina and Brazil based on the recent pace of shipments and reflect increased crush demand and imports for China. Partly offsetting is reduced 2019/20 U.S. exports. These revisions result in higher stocks for China and lower stocks for South America.
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