United States Department of Agriculture’s January 2026 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook raised the bar for U.S. pork supply in 2026 while trimming its price view. The agency projected 2026 commercial pork production at 28.2 billion pounds, up 2.3% from 2025, and forecast hog prices averaging $67 per hundredweight, nearly 3% below the 2025 average. The change matters now because it signals added supply pressure heading into 2026; producers feel the impact first through pricing and margin math, with downstream and upstream partners adjusting alongside them.
The higher production forecast rests on inventory signals. USDA said the outlook is based on December’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which showed a 1% increase in hog inventory. More hogs on hand translate into more market-ready animals, and the outlook tied the lower 2026 price forecast directly to the additional supply implied by the production increase.
Feed mills and swine input suppliers are positioned to see steadier demand on the volume side. Higher production implies sustained or slightly increased feed demand for swine operations in 2026, even as the lower price outlook tightens producer margins. With revenue per head pressured, cost control becomes a central operating constraint, and competitive bidding on feed contracts becomes more consequential.
